ECONOMIC RECESSION IN NIGERIA UNDER PRESIDENT TINUBU: CHALLENGES AND COPING STRATEGIES AMONG THE AGED IN RURAL COMMUNITIES

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

From several critical viewpoints, the eight-year tenure of President Muhammadu Buhari can be seen as a period where Nigeria failed to seize important opportunities. President Muhammadu Buhari, who served from 2015 to 2023, made a commitment to enhance the economy, strengthen security, and take decisive action against corruption. Nevertheless, over his two terms subsequent to the 2015 general election - which instilled great expectations - Nigeria's economic and security prospects worsened. The nation's impact in the area and throughout the African continent has diminished, while unsolved internal issues such as nation-building and enhancing federalism persist (Deacon, 2023). 

Tinubu assumed control of an economy that was already grappling with substantial debt, elevated unemployment rates, diminished oil production, government finances being drained by subsidies, and growth being hindered by power shortages (Abu et al., 2023). The Nigerian economy has faced significant challenges throughout President Tinubu's tenure over the past year. The reforms implemented by Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, while courageous and commendable, have resulted in an economic slump characterised by an increase in poverty, hunger, and unemployment (Nyong et al., 2024). According to experts, the reforms are necessary to bring Africa's most populous country back on course. However, they were implemented hastily without taking into account the potential negative impact on the inhabitants, particularly the vulnerable ones. 

Tinubu, who ran his campaign under the theme of "Renewed Hope," eliminated an expensive petrol subsidy and foreign currency controls as part of his strategy to enhance government finances, regain trust from investors, and stimulate economic growth (Eno et al., 2023). However, inflation has surged to its greatest level in thirty years and the value of the naira currency is plummeting to unprecedented lows due to severe shortages of the dollar. The prices of food, cooking gas, medicines, petrol and public transit have significantly increased, putting pressure on household budgets. Approximately 8 percent of Nigerians are classified as food insecure, making it crucial to prioritise the issue of increasing food insecurity (IMF, 2024).

According to the research conducted by Mcdonald and Abraham (2024), they assert that implementing policies is crucial for placing Nigeria on a path of continuous economic expansion.  Nevertheless, the economy is currently undergoing growth that falls somewhat short of Tinubu's target of achieving a 6% annual increase. Bismarck (2024), a distinguished economic analyst appointed to Tinubu's economic council in March, agreed with the need for economic reforms but stressed the significance of prioritising their implementation. The reforms were implemented quickly, but there was no clear strategy to deal with the probable implications of these measures on the populace (Mcdonald & Abraham, 2024).

Alisi (2019) defines economic recession as a period of widespread economic deterioration, typically characterised by a contraction in the GDP lasting for at least six months (two consecutive quarters) or more. The period is typically characterised by elevated unemployment rates, stagnating earnings, and a decline in retail sales, accompanied by a significant increase in inflation, leading to a diminished purchasing power for many individuals. A recession, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, is a substantial decrease in economic activity that affects the entire economy and lasts for more than a few months. This reduction is typically observed in indicators such as real gross domestic product (GDP), real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A widely accepted operational definition of recession, embraced by most commentators and analysts, is the occurrence of two consecutive quarters of negative growth in a nation's real (adjusted for inflation) gross domestic product (GDP), which represents the total value of goods and services produced by the country (Tobi et al., 2018). Economic recessions have substantial impacts on many demographic groups, particularly the elderly population residing in rural towns. 

Ene and Aniefiok (2023) note that the ongoing economic crisis in Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, has had a severe and harmful impact on the majority of the Nigerian population, especially the elderly. They claim that the present economic condition in Nigeria has not only diminished the ability of older individuals to buy things, but it has also affected the purchasing power of their adult offspring who are responsible for providing the necessary goods and services to ensure the welfare of their elderly parents. Unfortunately, an economic recession is a time when firms in both the public and private sectors of the economy are forced to stop hiring while others choose to either lay off employees or reduce their compensation as a means of surviving (Chibuike, 2017).

According to the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (2023), the rate of unemployment among individuals with post-secondary education in Nigeria was 8% in the second quarter of 2023. The report indicates that the NEET rate, which represents the percentage of young people who are not employed, in education, or in training, was 13.8%. The unemployment rate among young people aged 15-24 in the second quarter of 2023 was 7.2%, compared to 6.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Additionally, the unemployment rate in urban areas increased from 5.4% in the first quarter of 2023 to 5.9% in the second quarter of 2023. It was anticipated that this number will rise in 2024 as a result of further job losses. The prevailing economic conditions have had a pervasive impact on several aspects of society, including business, technology, industry, and education. This has resulted in consequences for individuals across all demographics, notably adult children who are expected to offer essential care and assistance to their elderly parents (Njoku, 2024).

Research has indicated that the elderly experience a greater impact of economic difficulties specifically in relation to their health (Feranmi, 2020). In the specific context of this study, healthcare services are limited and difficult to access in rural locations. Additionally, even when these services are accessible, they are prohibitively expensive for elderly individuals (Feranmi, 2020). Therefore, they consider traditional healthcare services as a superior choice (Balogun, 2021). Consequently, it is imperative to analyse the impact of economic crisis on the elderly and their methods of survival under President Tinubu's administration. Therefore, the investigation is necessary.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

President Tinubu assumed leadership in a multifaceted economic environment marked by inflation, elevated unemployment rates, and a diminishing GDP. Various fiscal and monetary policies have been implemented in order to tackle these difficulties. Nevertheless, the recession has continued, worsening the financial challenges experienced by several individuals, especially in rural regions with restricted economic prospects.

Rural villages in Nigeria frequently lack the necessary physical structures and economic prospects that are commonly seen in urban areas. The elderly population in these regions predominantly depends on subsistence farming, small-scale trading, and financial support from their family members (Akan & Imoh, 2023). During an economic crisis, the many ways in which people earn money can be significantly impacted, resulting in a higher level of susceptibility and difficulty for older individuals. The economic downturn during the Tinubu administration has exacerbated the financial hardships faced by elderly individuals residing in rural communities. The cohort in question (Obaje, 2024) encounters difficulties such as escalating prices, limited healthcare availability, and dwindling income streams. 

Babatunde (2024) notes that the recession has resulted in an increase in the cost of life for all Nigerians, including the elderly. The inflationary pressures and the devaluation of the Naira have led to a significant increase in the pricing of vital commodities and services. The elderly, who frequently have stable or restricted wages, are experiencing considerable financial burden as a result of this, which makes it challenging to cover essential needs like food, housing, and healthcare. The government's efforts to assist the elderly in rural areas are still inadequate, despite implementing multiple policy measures (Nsikak, 2023). Danny & Silas (2024) note that social safety nets and pension systems frequently lack sufficiency or suffer from faulty implementation, resulting in a significant number of elderly adults lacking a dependable means of support. This study aims to comprehensively comprehend the obstacles faced by the elderly and determine the techniques they use to navigate through these challenging times.

Objectives of the study

The primary objective of this study is to critically explore Economic recession in Nigeria under President Tinubu: challenges and coping strategies among the aged in rural communities. Specific objectives of this study are to:

To identify the economic challenges faced by the aged in rural communities during the recession.

To assess the impact of the economic recession on the overall well-being of the aged population in rural areas.

To explore the coping mechanisms and strategies adopted by the aged to manage economic hardship.

To offer strategic solutions for policymakers to mitigate the adverse effects of the recession on the aged in rural communities.

1.4 Research Questions

The following research questions will be answered in this study:

What are the economic challenges faced by the aged in rural communities during the recession?

What is the impact of the economic recession on the overall well-being of the aged population in rural areas?

What are the coping mechanisms and strategies adopted by the aged to manage economic hardship?

What are the strategic solutions for policymakers to mitigate the adverse effects of the recession on the aged in rural communities?

1.5 Research Hypotheses

The following research hypotheses will validate this study;

Ho: There is no significant impact of the economic recession on the overall well-being of the aged population in rural areas.

Ha: There is significant impact of the economic recession on the overall well-being of the aged population in rural areas.

1.6 Significance of the study

The study's importance rests in its examination of the economic recession during President Tinubu's tenure in Nigeria and its specific effects on the elderly population in rural communities. The study seeks to improve policies, strengthen social support networks, and foster resilience among vulnerable populations during periods of economic adversity by emphasizing the difficulties faced and the techniques employed to overcome them. 

Moreover, through an analysis of the coping mechanisms utilised by elderly individuals residing in rural regions, this research can provide valuable insights for the development of policies and initiatives that aim to assist this specific demographic during times of economic downturn. The knowledge acquired can assist policymakers in formulating focused social assistance programmes and policies. The findings obtained from the study can enhance conversations regarding long-term economic planning, social safety nets, and sustainable development plans that prioritise the requirements of elderly individuals residing in rural regions.

Furthermore, future academics will employ it as a comprehensive analysis of the existing literature. As a result, other students who are interested in studying this subject will have the chance to use this work as reliable information that can be thoroughly assessed.

1.7 Scope of the study

Broadly, this study focus is to critically explore Economic recession in Nigeria under President Tinubu: challenges and coping strategies among the aged in rural communities. Specifically, this study seeks to identify the economic challenges faced by the aged in rural communities during the recession, assess the impact of the economic recession on the overall well-being of the aged population in rural areas, the coping mechanisms and strategies adopted by the aged to manage economic hardship and it also seeks to offer strategic solutions for policymakers to mitigate the adverse effects of the recession on the aged in rural communities.

1.8 Limitations of the study

As is common in all human endeavours, the researchers faced minor limitations when conducting the study. The main limitation was the lack of extensive literature on the subject, as there is limited data available for economic hardship experience of urban residents under Tinubu administration (a case study of Lekki residents). Consequently, a significant amount of time and effort was necessary to locate the appropriate materials, books, or information and to gather data. 

Additionally, this study is constrained by its small sample size and narrow geographical scope, focusing just on Nigeria. Consequently, the results of this study are not applicable for generalization, thereby leaving room for further research. 

Additionally, the researcher's limitations were primarily due to financial constraints, as they are a student and do not have a source of income to sustain themselves. It was challenging to afford transportation expenses to and from the study location due to the high cost of transportation, which is influenced by inflation in Nigeria today.

Furthermore, the researcher faced a time constraint due to the need to do this research while also fulfilling the obligations of attending lectures and other educational activities.

1.9 Definition of terms

Economic recession: Economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales

Inflation: Inflation is the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time. Inflation is typically a broad measure, such as the overall increase in prices or the increase in the cost of living in a country.

Economic hardship:  economic hardship refers to difficulty caused by having too little money or too few resources.

Vulnerable: (of a person) in need of special care, support, or protection because of age, disability, or risk of abuse or neglect.