ECONOMIC RECESSION AND AGRICULTURE SECTOR SUSTAINABILITY IN NIGERIA: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES (BASED ON PRESIDENT BOLA AHMED TINUBU ADMINISTRATION)

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

Agriculture is the bedrock of economic growth, development and poverty eradication in the developing countries. Agriculture has also regarded as the engine and panacea to economic prosperity. In the words of Gunner (2019), the battle for long-term economic growth will be won or lost in the agricultural sector. However, how this path leads to economic prosperity is still subject to debate among development specialists and economists. Nigerian economy in past decades strives on the agricultural sector. The sector is reputed as the mainstay of the economy in the early 1960’s. It is seen as the key driver for growth and development. In fact, to further buttress the pivotal role the sector plays in the Nigerian economy, the agricultural sector is part of the Millennium Development Goals program of poverty reduction in Nigeria (Ogundipe et al., 2020). In most developing countries (low and middle-income countries), the agricultural sector remains, the largest contributor providing inputs, food, employment opportunities, raw materials for other industries, provision of foreign earnings from exportation of the surpluses, and more importantly the enormous advantage of the value added in the various production process (Izu, 2021).

Prior to the discovery of oil in marketable quantity, agriculture has been the mainstay of the Nigerian economy. But the neglect of the agricultural sector for the oil sector has caused dwindling in economic growth any time there is fall in the price of crude oil in the international market. This then led to economic recession. The findings are in line with empirical work of Ifabiyi et ala., (2018) who revealed that young Nigerians preferred white-collar jobs that are not readily available to agriculture. This led to dwindling of the Nigerian economy and this may be one of the factors responsible for the recent economic recession in Nigeria. According to Odinta (2017), a recession is a period of economic decline within the business cycle, characterised by a widespread decrease in economic activity lasting for at least two consecutive quarters (6 months or more).

Ifabiyi et al (2018) posits that economic recession results in scarcity of fund which made farmers vulnerable to purchase farm inputs for agricultural production because the prizes of such inputs have skyrocketed. Agricultural households also suffered from declining income from off-farm jobs, as the economic recession ripples through to rural-based business and loss of tax revenue put pressure on rural government employment and social services. Similarly, the economic recession in Nigeria has increased poverty to the rural farmers because of reduced earnings, investment and savings. This has made the rural farmers unable to care for their family’s health, education and other essentials of life (Ifabiyi et al., 2018).

Nigeria is endowed with vast arable land, favorable climatic conditions, and a large labor force, making agriculture a central component of its economy (Chisom, 2017). Despite these advantages, the sector faces numerous challenges, including poor technology, poor quality of raw materials and inadequate supply of modern inputs. The main causes of the challenges include low support from government, poor government policy, poverty, low level of awareness, lack of adequate research and increases in the prices of inputs (Nwokocha et al., 2019). Economic recessions exacerbate these issues, leading to reduced agricultural output and threatening food security. 

The agricultural sector plays a crucial role in Nigeria's economy, contributing significantly to employment, food security, and GDP (Inyene et al., 2021). However, economic recessions pose significant challenges to the sustainability of this sector, impacting productivity, investment, and livelihoods. Since assuming office in 2023, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has prioritized agricultural development as a key strategy for economic diversification and sustainability. His administration has implemented various policies and initiatives aimed at boosting agricultural productivity, enhancing value chains, and improving rural livelihoods. These efforts are critical in the context of economic recessions, which necessitate resilient and sustainable agricultural practices to mitigate adverse effects. This study aims to assess the challenges and opportunities for agriculture sector sustainability during economic recessions, with a focus on the period under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

The agricultural sector of Nigeria is crucial to its economy, producing significant contributions to both employment and GDP. The country has a diverse array of agro-ecological zones that are very suitable for farming different crops and rearing livestock. The prominent agricultural commodities include cassava, yams, maize, rice, sorghum, cocoa, palm oil, and livestock. However, there are many barriers that prevent the industry from achieving its full potential.

Characterising Nigeria's economy as agrarian does not suggest that Nigeria is significantly advanced in agriculture (Henry et al., 2022). Peasant farming is the predominant agricultural activity in Nigeria. Agriculture is an essential industry that sustains the livelihoods of many individuals, particularly those living in rural areas. However, a considerable proportion of Nigerian farmers continue to rely on traditional, labor-intensive farming methods. While cultural practices and local knowledge greatly influence these strategies, they often impede production and sustainability, presenting significant challenges to attaining food security (Segun et al., 2020). Denrele (2019) states that a significant amount of Nigerian agriculture relies on labor-intensive practices, limited use of advanced technologies, dependence on rainfall for irrigation, and cultivation of many crops. Akan (2023) substantiates this assertion by contending that these antiquated farming techniques often result in diminished crop productivity when compared to contemporary agricultural practices. The cause of this issue lies in the limited adoption of high-yielding seed varieties, inadequate management of soil fertility, and minimal usage of fertilisers and pesticides.

Furthermore, Esuene (2023) observes that the insufficiency of infrastructure is a contributing cause to the low agricultural productivity and food insecurity in Nigeria. Addressing these infrastructure gaps is imperative for enhancing food security and ensuring the sustenance of millions of Nigerians. Akala (2021) observes that many rural areas, which are the primary locations for agricultural activity, are linked via poorly maintained or gravel roads. The deteriorating road conditions result in higher transportation costs, so reducing the profitability of agricultural businesses and causing an increase in food prices for consumers. Moreover, studies suggest a lack of sufficient and up-to-date storage facilities, such as silos and refrigerated warehouses, for preserving harvested crops and perishable items (Akon 2022). Inadequate storage leads to a significant quantity of perishable goods being discarded as a result of spoilage, infestation, and pollution. As a result, there is a decline in the overall availability of food and farmers suffer from economic losses. Poor storage conditions can lead to the degradation of food quality, affecting the nutritional content and market value of agricultural products (Femi et al., 2021). 

To enhance agricultural productivity, assure sustainable agriculture, and achieve long-term food security, Nigeria must address these challenges and embrace enhanced agricultural techniques under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Hence, the need for this inquiry arises.

Objectives of the study

The primary objective of this study is to critically assess economic recession and agriculture sector sustainability in Nigeria: challenges and opportunities (based on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration). Specific objectives of this study are to:

To determine the effects of economic recession on agricultural productivity in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration

To identify challenges faced by agricultural sector during recession under President Tinubu administration.

To identify potential strategies for enhancing agricultural sustainability under President Tinubu administration.

1.4 Research Questions

The following research questions which are in line with the objectives of this study will be answered in this study:

What are the effects of economic recession on agricultural productivity in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration?

What are the challenges faced by agricultural sector during recession under President Tinubu administration?

What are the potential strategies for enhancing agricultural sustainability under President Tinubu administration?

1.5 Research Hypothesis

To determine the effectiveness of this study, the following research null hypotheses will be formulated to guide the study and it will be tested at 0.05% levels of significance.:

Ho: The extent of recession in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration is low.

Ha: The extent of recession in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration is high.

1.6 Significance of the study

An examination of the effects of economic recession on the long-term viability of Nigeria's agriculture sector during President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration is essential for guiding the formulation of policies that promote food security, rural livelihoods, economic resilience, and sustainable development. The study will establish a fundamental reference point for the general public, smallholder farmers, policy officials, students, and intellectuals.

Agriculture is a fundamental pillar of Nigeria's economy, serving as a major source of employment and guaranteeing food security for a significant portion of the population. During periods of economic downturn, comprehending the impact on the agriculture industry can provide insight on weaknesses in food production and delivery systems. A substantial segment of Nigeria's populace depends on agriculture as their primary source of income, particularly in rural regions. An examination of the sustainability of the sector during economic downturns can shed light on the difficulties experienced by rural communities and uncover potential ways to strengthen their ability to recover.

Moreover, smallholder farmers form a substantial proportion of Nigeria's agricultural industry. Analyzing the effects of recessions on smallholder agriculture's production, income, and resource availability can provide valuable insights for designing policies and programmes to support this sector. The study can enhance comprehension of the enduring economic ramifications of recessions on the agriculture sector, encompassing effects on employment, rural development, and economic diversification.

Additionally, the results of the study can provide valuable insights for developing evidence-based policies that can help sustain the agriculture sector during periods of economic decline. This include policies pertaining to market entry, the establishment of infrastructure, subsidies for inputs, and financial support for agriculture.

Moreover, future researchers will employ it as a comprehensive analysis of the existing corpus of literature. As a result, other students who are interested in studying this subject will have the chance to use this work as trustworthy information that can be thoroughly assessed. 

1.7 Scope of the study

Broadly, this study focus is to critically assess economic recession and agriculture sector sustainability in Nigeria: challenges and opportunities (based on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration). Specifically, this study seeks to evaluate the extent of recession in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration and determine the effects of economic recession on agricultural productivity in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration. 

Further, this study will focus on identifying challenges faced by agricultural sector during recession under President Tinubu administration and it also seeks to identify potential opportunities for enhancing agricultural sustainability.

Geographically, this study will be carried out among Farmers in Benue State.

1.8 Limitations of the study

As is common in all human endeavours, the researchers faced minor limitations when conducting the study. The main limitation was the lack of extensive literature on the subject, as there is limited data available for economic recession and agriculture sector sustainability in Nigeria: challenges and opportunities (based on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration). Consequently, a significant amount of time and effort was necessary to locate the appropriate materials, books, or information and to gather data. 

Additionally, this study is constrained by its small sample size and narrow geographical scope, focusing just on Nigeria. Consequently, the results of this study are not applicable for generalization, thereby leaving room for further research. 

Additionally, the researcher's limitations were primarily due to financial constraints, as they are a student and do not have a source of income to sustain themselves. It was challenging to afford transportation expenses to and from the study location due to the high cost of transportation, which is influenced by inflation in Nigeria today.

Furthermore, the researcher faced a time constraint due to the need to do this research while also fulfilling the obligations of attending lectures and other educational activities.

1.9 Definition of terms

Economic recession: Economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales

Inflation: Inflation is the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time. Inflation is typically a broad measure, such as the overall increase in prices or the increase in the cost of living in a country.

Vulnerable population: Vulnerable populations are individuals who are at greater risk of poor physical and social health status. They are considered vulnerable because of disparities in physical, economic, and social health status when compared with the dominant population.