AN ASSESSMENT OF PUBLIC OPINION OF THE GOVERNMENT'S POLICIES AND ACTIONS IN ADDRESSING THE ECONOMIC RECESSION DURING PRESIDENT TINUBU'S TENURE

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

While there is no universally accepted definition of recession, it is widely acknowledged that the phrase describes a period of economic downturn (Bagda et al., 2019). Recessions are not characterised by very brief periods of downturn. A widely accepted operational definition of recession, employed by most commentators and analysts, is the occurrence of two consecutive quarters of negative growth in a nation's real (adjusted for inflation) gross domestic product (GDP), which represents the total value of goods and services produced by the country (Tobi et al., 2018). While this definition serves as a practical guideline, it also has limitations. Exclusively focusing on GDP is limited, and it is sometimes more advantageous to take into account a broader range of indicators of economic activity to ascertain if a country is truly experiencing a recession. Additionally, utilising alternative indicators can offer a more prompt assessment of the economic condition.

 The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as a substantial decrease in economic activity that affects the entire economy and lasts for more than a few months. This reduction is typically observed in production, employment, real income, and other indicators (Hall, 2018). A recession commences when the economy reaches its highest level of activity and concludes when the economy reaches its lowest point. In accordance with this definition, the Committee places emphasis on a wide range of indicators, which encompass not only GDP but also employment, income, sales, and industrial production, in order to assess the patterns in economic activity (Xavier et al., 2019). According to Asua (2024), economic recessions are prolonged periods of substantial economic deterioration that affect several sectors of the economy. These eras are marked by declines in GDP, income, employment, industrial production, and retail sales. 

Governments face a crucial task in controlling and reducing the impact of economic recessions. This involves implementing effective policies and taking actions to stabilise the economy and provide support to impacted sectors and populations (Umoren, 2023). President Bola Tinubu took office on May 29, 2023, during a crucial period in Nigeria's history, marked by numerous difficulties. His assertive inauguration statement, "Subsidy is eliminated," marked a notable deviation from prior policies, indicating a crucial change in the country's economic approach. In order to directly address these difficulties, Tinubu's administration promptly implemented crucial reforms with the goal of stabilising and propelling Nigeria towards sustainable growth (Yusuf, 2024). The past year has been characterised by a determined dedication to tackling Nigeria's urgent issues and guiding the country towards a more promising future (Thisday, 2024).

Realising the urgent necessity for prompt action, Tinubu promptly highlighted the need for strong economic interventions to save the economy from further deterioration. Tinubu has implemented an ambitious plan over the course of a year, with a strong emphasis on extensive economic restructuring, infrastructure advancement, and improvements in governance (Thisday, 2024). Two significant actions taken by his government were the elimination of fuel subsidies and the consolidation of the currency rate. These measures were crucial in promoting long-term economic growth and stability. The purpose of these resolute actions was to rectify persistent economic imbalances and reestablish the trust of investors in Nigeria's economy (Punch, 2024). During a cabinet retreat organised to define the government's main objectives, Tinubu presented a detailed plan designed to promote advancement in many areas. On January 15, 2024, the government clarified its objectives by outlining eight key areas of focus in a circular released by the office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation. The topics covered include economic reform, national security, agriculture, energy, infrastructure, education, healthcare, social investment, industrialization, digitization, creative arts, manufacturing, innovation, and governance enhancement (Agbajor, 2024).

Despite the implementation of various measures by the current administration, Nigerians express disapproval of these policies, criticizing the government as cruel and inconsiderate towards the disadvantaged populations (API, 2024). The success and legitimacy of government initiatives heavily rely on public opinion. Analyze individuals' perceptions of government initiatives to gain useful insights into the efficacy of these measures and identify areas that require enhancement (Ezeugo, 2020). Positive public sentiment has the potential to bolster the execution of policies by fostering more adherence and collaboration, whereas negative public sentiment can result in opposition and social turmoil (Mife, 2019). This study aims to evaluate the public perception of the government's policies and actions in dealing with the economic slump that occurred during President Tinubu's term.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Governments face substantial problems when dealing with economic recessions as they work to stabilise the economy, provide help to afflicted industries, and minimise the negative impact on the populace. During President Bola Tinubu's tenure, Nigeria has experienced an economic slump characterised by significant inflation, increasing unemployment, and a volatile worldwide market. The administration has enacted a range of policies and initiatives in order to tackle these challenges and stimulate economic revival.

Nigerians are enraged by the measures enacted by President Tinubu (Okonofua, 2024).  An Africa polling institute survey conducted in 2024 reveals a harsh truth: The policies implemented by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu during his first year in office have resulted in widespread hunger, poverty, and dissatisfaction among the inhabitants. An overwhelming majority of the population (84%) expresses deep grief at the current condition of affairs in the country. Their discontented voices serve as a resounding plea for immediate action, as an overwhelming majority of the population (81%) believe that the nation is on the wrong path. They specifically highlight Hunger (36%), Inability to meet basic needs (28%), Unemployment (13%), Heightened Insecurity (9%), and Poor Electricity Supply (5%) as the primary obstacles they personally face today. Furthermore, an astonishing 74% of individuals confirmed that their personal economic condition had worsened in the past year, in contrast to 20% who reported no change in their personal economic status, and a measly 5% who claimed an improvement. Ifiok (2024) has astutely noticed an increasing number of disgruntled and dissatisfied individuals around the country, particularly among the younger generation. A significant number of individuals are currently without employment or are working in jobs that do not fully utilise their skills and abilities. These individuals have taken on the role of local advocates and social activists within their communities. They eagerly await any chance to express their frustration and resentment against both their fellow residents and the Nigerian government. 

Furthermore, there is a significant deficiency in comprehending the public's perception of these government initiatives. Public opinion is essential for the efficacy and credibility of government policies. Favourable public impression can bolster adherence to programmes and foster collaboration, whereas unfavourable perception can engender resistance, social upheaval, and impede policy effectiveness. Ifiok (2024) posits that there exists a discernible disparity in communication between Nigerians and their government. The administration has failed to effectively communicate the significance of these initiatives in promoting economic growth. The general public feels deceived, accusing the current administration of being indifferent and lacking consideration. The main objective of this study is to tackle the limited comprehension of public sentiment towards the government's policies and measures taken to combat the economic downturn during President Tinubu's term. This knowledge gap hinders policymakers' capacity to evaluate the efficacy of their plans and make essential modifications to better cater to the requirements of the public. Therefore, the necessity for this investigation arises.

Objectives of the study

The primary objective of this study is to critically assess public opinion of the government's policies and actions in addressing the economic recession during President Tinubu's tenure. Specific objectives of this study are to:

To assess public opinion on the effectiveness of the government's policies and actions in addressing the economic recession.

To analyze the demographic variations in public opinion, such as differences based on age, gender, income level, and geographic location.

To identify the factors that influence public opinion on these policies.

To evaluate the impact of public perception on the success and challenges of policy implementation.

1.4 Research Questions

The following research questions which are in line with the objectives of this study will be answered in this study:

How does the public perceive the effectiveness of the government's policies and actions in addressing the economic recession?

How does public opinion on government policies vary across different demographic groups?

What are the factors influencing public opinion on the government's handling of the economic recession?

How does public perception impact the implementation and success of government policies?

1.6 Significance of the study

Public opinion plays a crucial role in ensuring that governments are held responsible in democratic nations. Evaluating the public's perception of the government's response to an economic slump offers insights regarding the effectiveness, fairness, and responsiveness of policies to citizen concerns. This study is essential as it seeks to offer a comprehensive comprehension of public sentiment regarding the government's management of the economic recession under President Tinubu's administration. The findings will be of great value to policymakers, government officials, economic planners, students, and scholars.

The effectiveness of certain initiatives undertaken during the recession can be evaluated by public opinion response. Favourable public mood may suggest that policies are seen as advantageous and effectively addressing the population's requirements. In contrast, a negative mood might draw attention to regions where policies are seen as insufficient or poorly implemented. Public opinion findings can provide policymakers with valuable insights to make essential adjustments or improvements to economic policies. Gaining insight into the concerns and objectives of the public can aid in developing more efficient and focused policy measures to alleviate the effects of the recession and promote economic recovery.

Furthermore, the discontent among the general public towards the government's handling of economic crises might have an influence on the stability of the political system. Evaluating public sentiment aids in measuring the likelihood of social unrest or political dissatisfaction resulting from the perception of insufficient government intervention or mishandling of the economic downturn.

Moreover, the way the public views the actions taken by the government during a recession can have an impact on the confidence of investors and their opinions of the stability of the economy. Favorable public perception indicates trust in the government's competence to handle economic difficulties, which can enhance investor confidence and stimulate economic investment.

 Furthermore, future scholars will utilise it as a thorough examination of the current body of literature. Consequently, other students with an interest in studying this subject will have the opportunity to utilise this work as reliable knowledge that can be comprehensively evaluated. 

1.7 Scope of the study

Broadly, this study focus is to critically assess public opinion of the government's policies and actions in addressing the economic recession during President Tinubu's tenure. Specifically, this study seeks to assess public opinion on the effectiveness of the government's policies and actions in addressing the economic recession and analyze the demographic variations in public opinion, such as differences based on age, gender, income level, and geographic location.

Further, this study will focus on identifying the factors that influence public opinion on these policies and it also seeks to evaluate the impact of public perception on the success and challenges of policy implementation.

1.8 Limitations of the study

Like in any human attempt, the researchers encountered several small limits during the investigation. The primary constraint was the scarcity of comprehensive literature on the topic, as there is a paucity of data regarding an assessment of public opinion of the government's policies and actions in addressing the economic recession during President Tinubu's tenure. Therefore, a substantial investment of time and effort was required to find the suitable materials, books, or information and collect data. 

Moreover, this study is limited by its limited sample size and restricted geographical reach, namely concentrating just on Nigeria. Hence, the findings of this study cannot be extrapolated, thereby necessitating additional research. 

Furthermore, the researcher's limitations were predominantly attributable to budgetary restraints, as they are a student and lack a means of financial support. The research location's transportation charges were difficult to afford due to the exorbitant cost of transportation, which is directly impacted by the current inflation in Nigeria.

In addition, the researcher encountered a time limitation as a result of having to conduct this research while simultaneously meeting the responsibilities of attending lectures and engaging in other educational pursuits.

1.9 Definition of terms

Economic recession: Economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales

Inflation: Inflation is the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time. Inflation is typically a broad measure, such as the overall increase in prices or the increase in the cost of living in a country.