A QUALITATIVE STUDY ON REGIME CHANGES IN NIGERIA. EFFECT ON POLICY INSECURITY ON THE ECONOMY OF NIGERIA 2011-2023

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the Study

Nigeria's economy has been greatly affected by changes in the country's regime. Nigeria has seen multiple governmental changes between 2011 and 2023, which have led to changes in policy as well as uncertainties and inconsistencies. The economy has been significantly impacted by these shifts, which have affected investor confidence, economic growth, and general development.  Over the past few decades, Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation (Galal, (2024) and one of its greatest economies (Olujinmi, 2024) has seen substantial political and economic upheaval, changes in political leadership and governance methods marked the frequency and significance of regime changes that occurred between 2011 and 2023. These adjustments frequently resulted in differing degrees of policy uncertainty, which had an impact on the nation's economy. From independence in 1960, Nigeria as a nation has had series of changes in administrative regimes. Well of course, this is expected in typical democratic society. Howbeit, the process of this transition has seen Nigeria through both democratic and military regimes. The coming and going of these regimes has had a turn of blows on the policy mechanism of the country thereby on the economy of the state. 

Three unique political regimes are covered within the study period: the final years of President Goodluck Jonathan's administration (2010-2015), President Muhammadu Buhari's administration (2015–2023), and the first part of President Bola Tinubu's tenure (2023) Different political philosophies, priorities, and administrative techniques were reflected in the policies and approaches to governance that each regime put forth. When talking about insecurity, what comes to mind first is the security of lives and properties of a people. However, what a lot have fail to put into consideration is the fact that not only lives and properties require security. As much as there are insurance systems put in place to redeem loses born out of insecurity, this only exist for lives and properties. Thinking about this, the question comes to mind, what is the insurance package for economists, investors, business tycoons, and entrepreneurs when they set out on a business following certain government policies put in place by a sitting administration, probably to curb unemployment? What happens when the government changes hands? What is the fate of foreign investors when a new administration doesn’t carry on the previous administration's economic policies? These questions and more spark curiosity as to why so little has been done to evaluate the rate of insecurity in government policies and how they play down on the economy of the nation.

Insecurity here implies a threat to safety, which impedes growth. So when talking about policy insecurity, it is worthy to understand in this context. Hence, what policy implies here can be seen as a set of plans that is used as a basis for making decisions, especially in politics, economics, or business. As such, when talking about policy insecurity, it implies threats to the safety of economic decisions set in place by a government regime, which may impede economic growth and retard the economy of the state. Now the researcher is seeing this in light of regime changes. Hence, when there is a change in regime, there is the tendency of change in policies. This, however, the researcher sees as one of the most undermined woes of democracy, less talked about.

Having had a grasp of the central theme, it is therefore posited that this research work is set out to qualitatively access the changes that came with the transition of regimes from 2022 to 2023 in terms of policies that made or mere the economy in different levels. This could be at the most minimal level or at international scale.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Nigeria's economy suffered grave consequences from 2011 to 2023 as a result of unstable policies and regime changes. Macroeconomic instability has been exacerbated by the frequent changes in government and the ensuing policy changes, which have damaged investor trust and led to inconsistent economic policies. Regimes come and go, and policies change almost as the regime changes. These changes in no little way, have affected the economy in no small way as well. Nigerian economic policy have frequently been inconsistent as a result of regime transitions. Every administration prioritizes its own policies, occasionally dropping or drastically changing the programs of its predecessor. For example, the Buhari government mainly abandoned Jonathan's Transformation Agenda in favor of the ERGP (Central Bank of Nigeria, 2017). Such disparities might cause ongoing initiatives and investments to be disrupted and impair long-term economic planning.

Nigeria's oil and gas industry is especially vulnerable to changes in policy because it is the country's main source of income. Political grievances have fueled militant activity in the Niger Delta, which has severely impacted government revenue and economic stability by disrupting oil production (NNPC, 2016).The agricultural industry has also been impacted by policy insecurity. Political tensions have frequently made conflicts between farmers and herders worse. This has disrupted agricultural activities, resulting in lower productivity and issues with food security (International Crisis Group, 2017). Nigeria had its first economic recession in more than 20 years as a result of a combination of declining oil prices, political unpredictability, and unclear policies. Nigeria's economy is susceptible to political and foreign shocks, as demonstrated by the country's economic decline in 2016 (National Bureau of Statistics, 2017).

Looking at it from this perspective, the researcher saw the need to carefully access this almost untapped field with so much enthusiasm to fathom the extent to which these regime changes and policy changes have affected the economy. As salient as this might sound, as important as the economy of the state is to the growth and development of any state, very little has been done to connect the dots of economic woes and growths to the changes in policy that emanate from changes in regimes. As such, this research work serves as a piece to connect these dots. However, the connection is streamlined by timeframes, and such limited regimes come to play. However, this work is set to leave an opening for further researchers who shall find this work a useful resource to aid their research and students who shall come across this as useful to aid their studies. Furthermore, this study seeks to contribute to the historiography of Nigerian political and economic studies. This will go a long way, as there are very scanty resources that are well documented in this regard. A lot has been written and said about regime changes as well as policy changes and the effects of some policy changes in Nigeria. However, these writings and talks tackle these aspects distinctively, thereby not having a comprehensive statement as will be encapsulated in this study.

1.3 Objectives of the Study

Investigating how Nigerian policy insecurity is affected by changes in regime between 2011 and 2023.

Investigating the impact of policy insecurity on Nigeria's economy in the same time frame.

Pinpointing the precise regime shifts that have exacerbated Nigeria's economic and policy instability.

To examine how economic indices like GDP, inflation, and unemployment relate to changes in regimes and policy uncertainty.

1.4 Research Questions

To arrive at an unbiased statement, the researcher asked qualitative questions like 

What where the impacts of policy insecurity on Nigeria's economy in the same time frame?

What are the precise regime shifts that have aggravated Nigeria's economic and policy instability?

What are the precise regime shifts that have impaired Nigeria's economic and policy instability?

How has economic indices like GDP, inflation, and unemployment related to changes in regimes and policy uncertainty?

1.5 Significance of the study

Considering the progressive nature of the Nigerian state, this study has lots of significance for the political elite, the academic class, and the general populace. Outstandingly, this study shall serve as an epitome of reference for students of politics and economics. Also, other researchers shall fall back on this research as a reference and base to guide their research.

This study presents an investigative evaluation of how Nigerian policy insecurity has been affected by regime changes between 2011 and 2023. It goes further to also investigate the impact of policy insecurity on economy of Nigeria within the same timeframe. This study will attempt to clearly pinpoint the regime shift that brought a turn in economic policy instability. Finally, this study shall present economic indices like GDP, inflation and unemployment that relatedly identifies with regime changes and policy insecurity .

1.6 Scope of the Study

The defined scope of this research work helps the researcher focus his attention. The researcher addressed the topics of politics, security, and economy. This he does in consideration of different indices that culminate together. This study is centered on a defined time span which spans from 2011 and terminates in 2023, this time span enables the research to clearly follow pattern and monitor changes over time. Finally, this research work is centered on Nigeria and an independent nation.

1.7 Limitations of the study

In the course of this research, the researcher was faced with a series of limitations that almost hindered the final statement. Among these limitations was the limited time to complete the research. The researcher was almost limited by the time allotted to this research. Also, the financial implications of accessing resources and materials for this study posed a serious threat to the success of the research. Aside from the above, the researcher was faced with an unexpected illness, which contributed to the delay in the conclusion of the research study.

1.8 Research Methodology

This research is qualitative in nature; as such, the researcher employed a qualitative method in the course of carrying out the research. However, the researcher used a historical research design. In this regard, the investigator evaluated this research in relation to the time period covering 2011 to 2023. As such, the researcher depended on secondary source materials like journals, textbooks, newspapers, and a lot more. This method of research was consequent upon the nature of the resources at the researchers’ disposal at every given time.

1.9 Definition of Terms

Regime: in this context, regime is explained as a system of role of government that transitions in a democratic setting. 

Policy: This refers to a set of roles, guidelines and modalities targeted at meeting a certain goal. Policies could be governmental or individual. In this context, we look at it from the governmental perspective. The policies could be targeted and the economy, education, health, international or foreign affairs, transportation and so on.

Insecurity: this is a state of being unsafe which may come as a result of certain factors. It could also imply a state of being at risk.

Economy: according to Wikipedia, economy can be summarized as An economy is a system of interrelated production and consumption activities that ultimately determine the allocation of resources within a group. The production and consumption of goods and services fulfills the needs of those living and operating within an economy.