CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.0 Preliminaries

According to Wikipedia (2013), Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a given location. Human beings have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia, and formally since the nineteenth century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere on a given place and using scientific understanding of atmospheric processes to project how the atmosphere will evolve on that place.

Once an all-human endeavor based mainly upon changes in barometric pressure, current weather conditions, and sky condition, weather forecasting now relies on computer-based models that take many atmospheric factors into account. Human input is still required to pick the best possible forecast model to base the forecast upon, which involves pattern recognition skills, tele-connections, knowledge of model performance, and knowledge of model biases. The chaoticnature of the atmosphere, the massive computational power required to solve the equations that describe the atmosphere, error involved in measuring the initial conditions, and an incomplete understanding of atmospheric processes mean that forecasts become less accurate as the difference in current time and the time for which the forecast is being made (the range of the forecast) increases. The use of ensembles and model consensus help narrow the error and pick the most likely outcome.

There are a variety of end uses to weather forecasts. Weather warnings are important forecasts because they are used to protect life and property. Forecasts based on temperature and precipitation are important to agriculture, and therefore to traders within commodity markets. Temperature forecasts are used by utility companies to estimate demand over coming days. On an everyday basis, people use weather forecasts to determine what to wear on a given day. Since outdoor activities are severely curtailed by heavy rain, snow and the wind chill, forecasts can be used to plan activities around these events, and to plan ahead and survive them.

Most end users of forecasts are members of the general public. Thunderstorms can create strong winds and dangerous lightning strikes that can lead to deaths, power outages, and widespread hail damage. Heavy snow or rain can bring transportation and commerce to a stand-still, as well as cause flooding in low-lying areas. Excessive heat or cold wavescan sicken or kill those with inadequate utilities, and droughts can impact water usage and destroy vegetation.

1.1 Theoretical Background

For millennia people have tried to predict what the weather would be like a day or a season in advance. In this millennia history of weather forecasting the techniques used

have changed significantly. Ancient methods of weather forecasting usually relied on experience to spot patterns of natural events. For example, they noticed that if the sunset

gave a particularly red sky, then the following day brought fair weather. There are used

also for this purpose primitive tools for indication of changes in the atmosphere. In the 20th century a great progress was made in the science of meteorology, which allowed understanding of atmospheric processes. With the invention of the mercury barometer it

became possible to be changed the way through which the weather forecast was made.

This leads to change in the former understandings for weather changes. The idea of numerical weather prediction (NWP) was presented by Lewis Fry Richardson in 1922. With this the beginning is put of a new method of approach for weather forecasting.

Several countries employ government agencies to provide forecasts and watches/warnings/advisories to the public in order to protect life and property and maintain commercial interests. Knowledge of what the end user needs from a weather forecast must be taken into account to present the information in a useful and understandable way. Traditionally, newspaper, television, and radio have been the primary outlets for presenting weather forecast information to the public. Increasingly, the internet is being used due to the vast amount of specific information that can be found. In all cases, these outlets update their forecasts on a regular basis.

1.2 Statement of problem

The condition of the earth’s climate is constantly changing, making it difficult to know when a disaster is around the corner. Many lives and properties has been lost as a result of natural disasters such as floods, cyclone, tonardoes, earthquake, etc. airlines in particular are seeking for more effective systems to enable them have a safe flight and in many cases they come against unfavourable weather conditions. It is in view of these problems that this research study is carried out to develop a weather forecasting system for aviation industry.

1.3 Aim and objectives of the study

The aim of the study is to design and implement a weather forecasting system for aviation industry. The following are the objectives of the study:

• To develop a workable weather forecasting system
• To present the concept of weather forecasting system
• To present the techniques of weather forecasting
• To present how models create forecasts
• To showcase the importance of weather forecasting system
• To showcase the limitations of weather forecasting system

1.4 Significance of the study

The significance of the study is that it will bring to light the relevance of weather forecasting and it will expose the vital activities involved in weather forecasting. It will provide a solution to the problem of being caught unaware by unfavorable weather conditions. The study will also serve as a reference material to all those who are seeking for information pertaining the subject.

1.5 Scope of the Study

This study covers the design and implementation of a weather forecasting system for aviation industry, using Ibom International Airport, Akwa Ibom state as a case study.

1.6 Organization of Research

This research work is organized into five chapters. Chapter one is concerned with the introduction of the research study and it presents the preliminaries, theoretical background, statement of the problem, aim and objectives of the study, significance of the study, scope of the study, organization of the research and definition of terms.

Chapter two focuses on the literature review, the contributions of other scholars on the subject matter is discussed.

Chapter three is concerned with the system analysis and design. It presents the research methodology used in the development of the system, it analyzes the present system to identify the problems and provides information on the advantages and disadvantages of the proposed system. The system design is also presented in this chapter.

Chapter four presents the system implementation and documentation, the choice of programming language, analysis of modules, choice of programming language and system requirements for implementation.

Chapter five focuses on the summary, constraints of the study, conclusion and recommendations are provided in this chapter based on the study carried out.

1.7 Definition of Terms

Weather – the state of the atmosphere with regard to temperature, cloudiness, rainfall, wind, and other meteorological conditions

Forecast – to predict or work out something that is likely to happen such as the weather conditions for the days ahead

Atmosphere – the mixture of gases that surrounds an astronomical object such as the Earth

Temperature – the heat of something measured on a scale such as the Fahrenheit or Celsius scale

Humidity- the amount of moisture in the air

Troposphere – the lowest and most dense layer of the atmosphere, extending 10 to 20 km/6 to 12 mi, in which temperature decreases with rising altitude and most weather occurs

Stratosphere – the region of the Earth’s atmosphere between the troposphere and mesosphere, from 10 km/6 mi to 50 km/30 mi above the Earth’s surface.

It has no clouds and is marked by gradual temperature increase.

Meteorology –  the scientific study of the Earth’s atmosphere, especially its patterns of climate and weather

Cyclone – a violent rotating windstorm or tornado.