AN INVESTIGATION OF THE RISK FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH FOOD INSECURITY UNDER PRESIDENT TINUBU'S ADMINISTRATION.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

Background of the study

Food is a vital necessity for human survival, along with clothing and shelter (Sheldon, 2017). Typically, these three goods are categorized as the fundamental necessities for men. Food security in Africa is facing significant risks, both natural and manufactured, depending on the specific situations and countries concerned. A food-secure world is characterized by universal access to safe, nutritious, and cost-effective food, which serves as the basis for maintaining an active and healthy lifestyle. 

Pete et al. (2017) aptly convey the global outlook on food security, stating that in the future, ensuring access to sufficient and nutritious food would become increasingly intricate in most nations. The factors contributing to the impact on global food production include population growth, limited land and water resources, shifts in dietary patterns due to increased wealth, the effects of floods and droughts on major food-producing regions, declining food exports, and an increasing number of countries relying on food imports. Interpretations of this remark vary among individuals. In nations experiencing desertification, the availability of water and arable land suitable for irrigation poses a significant obstacle that often leads to conflicts. Countries that face escalating monsoon rainfall encounter an annual ordeal that Bangladesh, for instance, will struggle to erase from memory or surmount. In the period from August to October 2020, around two-thirds of Bangladesh's territory was submerged in floods (Samir, 2022). In addition, the global food market experienced demand and supply shocks from several sources, which were further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 (Edet et al., 2023).

Food security, as defined by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), refers to the condition where individuals have consistent and unrestricted access to an adequate supply of food that is both safe and nutritious, fulfilling their dietary requirements and preferences, and promoting a healthy and active lifestyle. Approximately one billion individuals suffer from undernourishment, experiencing hunger and lacking sufficient daily caloric intake (PAI, 2015). Food security has a broader impact beyond human health and welfare (Khan et al., 2018). It also plays a significant role in maintaining economic and political stability. It is often observed that countries experiencing political instability are frequently associated with regions that lack food security. In these countries, the food insecurity may be a consequence of political instability, or the political instability may be a result of food insecurity. There is a strong correlation between the two factors, and they are closely related in the areas that are impacted (Suraj et al., 2019). 

Okwuadei (2018) defines food insecurity as the condition in which individuals do not have consistent physical or economic means to obtain sufficient, safe, nutritious, and socially acceptable food that is necessary for a healthy and productive life. Food insecurity can manifest as a long-term, recurring issue, a problem that occurs during specific seasons, or a short-term situation. Food insecurity and hunger cause immense levels of human distress. According to the World Health Organization, almost 60 percent of childhood fatalities in underdeveloped countries are linked to chronic hunger and malnutrition (WHO, 2021). In underdeveloped nations such as Nigeria, chronic malnutrition renders children frail, susceptible, and less capable of combating prevalent childhood ailments like diarrhea, acute respiratory infections, malaria, and measles.

Since President Bola Tinubu assumed office, Nigeria has experienced a significant increase in food insecurity due to the high inflation rate in the economy. In September 2023, the rate of inflation for food increased to 46 percent. In contrast to wealthier households that have the means to purchase a greater variety of meals, individuals with lower incomes have limited alternatives for basic food items, which constitute around 66% of their daily dietary intake. According to the World Food Programme (WFP) data from November 2023, 42 percent of the population in 26 states in Nigeria and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) are experiencing challenged food security circumstances with only marginally adequate food consumption. Over the past year, the number of persons experiencing severe food insecurity has increased by 5.4 million, reaching a total of 27 million. This represents more than 10 percent of the population (Jimoh et al., 2024). This study aims to examine the risk variables linked to food insecurity during President Tinubu's term.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Food insecurity should be recognized as a security threat, not only to individual countries but also to the entire continent (Egwu et al., 2019) Therefore, each country should develop strategies to effectively address this problem and prevent the potential negative consequences that often arise in countries that have experienced unrest in the past. If the problem is addressed diligently by implementing the advice of diverse policy makers, then the continent will achieve self-sufficiency in terms of food security.

The presence of Non-State Armed Groups (NSAGs) in the northeastern states of Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe has led to a significant rise in the displacement of residents from these areas (Kadiri, 2024). In addition, the northwest region has also become a prominent center for banditry, in addition to the ongoing fighting in the northeast. More precisely, the states of Zamfara, Kaduna, Katsina, and Sokoto have been experiencing persistent assaults in multiple agricultural communities. Nevertheless, the recently discovered hotspot, referred to as the Farmers/herders conflict, is an escalating problem in the northcentral states of Benue, Niger, and Plateau (Aina, 2023). The occurrence of a substantial number of people being displaced and the continuation of attacks in these places is a matter of worry (Jimoh et al., 2024).

However, the impact on individuals' livelihoods resulting from hostilities is not exclusive to the northern regions. They also impact specific states in the southern region, including Abia, Enugu, and Edo. inside these regions, disputes between pastoralists and agriculturalists, including incidents of abductions, have resulted in the relinquishment of agrarian means of subsistence inside farming communities (James, 2024). Significant marketplaces located in regions with high levels of risk, particularly in the northwest states, have been obstructed, resulting in the disruption of trade flows and economic operations. As a consequence, there has been a decline in the capacity to physically acquire food and limited chances for reliable sources of income that may improve households' ability to buy enough food (Kazeem, 2024). 

In addition, Kazeem (2024) argues that the rising inflation rate had an adverse effect on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), leading to increased prices for basic items such as food, non-food goods, and services. The urban areas saw a notably higher Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 31.95% compared to the rural areas, which had a CPI of 28.1%. The discrepancy in Consumer Price Index (CPI) can partially explain the increase in anarchy, criminal behavior, and looting. Urban households had fewer and less accessible coping mechanisms compared to rural households. Uncontrolled inflation could lead to an increase in urban crime rates, which may extend to rural regions during the peak of the lean season (Kazeem, 2024). The average cost of essential commodities rose by about 185% in comparison to both the same period in 2023 and the average of the preceding five years. More than 60% of the population was adversely affected by this, worsening the poverty of already vulnerable households, particularly in areas with security concerns. Therefore, the necessity for doing this investigation arises.

Objectives of the study

The primary objective of this study is to critically investigate the risk factors associated with food insecurity under president Tinubu's administration. Specific objectives of this study are to:

To determine the prevalence of food insecurity in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration.

To identify the socio-economic risk factors associated with food insecurity in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration.

To evaluate the impact of food insecurity under the recent administration on Nigerians.

To proffer strategic interventions to address identified risk factors to enhance food security in Nigeria.

1.4 Research Questions

The following research questions which are in line with the objectives of this study will be answered in this study:

What is the level of the prevalence of food insecurity in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration?

What are the socio-economic risk factors associated with food insecurity in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration?

What is the impact of food insecurity under the recent administration on Nigerians?

What are the strategic interventions provided to address identified risk factors to enhance food security in Nigeria?

1.5 Research Hypotheses

To determine the effectiveness of this study, the following research null hypotheses will be formulated to guide the study and it will be tested at 0.05% levels of significance.:

Ho: The level of the prevalence of food insecurity in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration is low

Ha: The level of the prevalence of food insecurity in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration is high.

1.6 Significance of the study

The study focuses on a crucial matter that has a significant impact on the welfare and progress of Nigeria. This study will establish a fundamental reference point for the agricultural sector of Nigeria, as well as for policy makers and the government. Additionally, it will enhance the overall standard of living for Nigerians.

The study will have great importance for the agriculture sector as it will aid in formulating measures to enhance agricultural productivity, which is vital for economic stability and growth. Enhanced food security can result in economic advantages through the alleviation of poverty and the augmentation of workforce productivity.

Moreover, this study will inform government officials and policy makers by offering valuable insights that can inform the development and execution of efficient food security strategies. Additionally, it will provide the government with valuable insights into areas that require enhancement or modification.

Moreover, the study aims to improve the standard of living for Nigerians. The study aims to mitigate poverty by identifying and addressing the socio-economic factors that contribute to food insecurity. The outcome of this study will additionally contribute to the improvement of social stability by mitigating the likelihood of disputes and social upheaval stemming from food scarcity. 

Furthermore, future scholars will utilize it as a literature review. Consequently, other students interested in researching this field will be able to utilize this work as existing material that can be critically evaluated. Without exception, the outcome of the study greatly enhances the existing academic understanding of the risk variables linked to food insecurity in Nigeria.

1.7 Scope of the study

Broadly, this study focuses to critically investigate the risk factors associated with food insecurity under president Tinubu's administration. Specifically, this study seeks to determine the prevalence of food insecurity in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration and identify the socio-economic risk factors associated with food insecurity in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration. 

Further, this study will focus on evaluating the impact of food insecurity under the recent administration on Nigerians, and it also seeks to proffer strategic interventions to address identified risk factors to enhance food security in Nigeria.

1.8 Limitations of the study

As is common in all human endeavors, the researchers faced minor limitations when conducting the study. The main limitation was the lack of extensive literature on the subject, as there is limited data available for investigating the risk variables connected with food insecurity during President Tinubu's administration. Consequently, a significant amount of time and effort was necessary to locate the appropriate materials, books, or information and to gather data. Additionally, this study is constrained by its small sample size and narrow geographical scope, focusing just on Nigeria. Consequently, the results of this study are not applicable for generalization, thereby leaving room for further research. 

Furthermore, the researcher faced a time constraint due to the need to do this research while also fulfilling the obligations of attending lectures and other educational activities.

1.9 Definition of terms

Food security: Food security is when a person is able to obtain a sufficient amount of healthy food on a day-to-day basis.

Food insecurity: Food insecurity is when a person cannot find adequate amounts of healthy food on a daily basis. Food security happens when a person does get the recommended amount of healthy food on a daily basis.

Socioeconomic: Socioeconomics is the social science that studies how economic activity affects and is shaped by social processes. In general, it analyzes how modern societies progress, stagnate, or regress because of their local or regional economy, or the global economy.