AN EXAMINATION OF THE CAUSES AND IMPLICATION OF POST ELECTORAL CONFLICT IN KENYA

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

The occurrence of pre or post-election violence is a widespread phenomena seen globally, particularly in developing nations. This trend has been shown to increase with the introduction of public political engagement facilitated by the electoral process. The election process serves as a lawful mechanism through which competing parties or competitors might gain access to political power. According to Adhiambo (2017), Orum cites Hanna Arendt's assertion that the foundational belief supporting widespread political engagement is predicated on the notion that an individual cannot be deemed truly liberated unless they have personally encountered public well-being. Furthermore, Arendt posits that one's freedom is contingent upon their active involvement and equitable influence in matters of public governance, as both happiness and freedom are inseparable from participation in and ownership of public authority. The electoral process serves as a mechanism for individuals to get access to positions of public authority, hence facilitating the realisation of the aforementioned state of contentment. Public power is the authority granted to rule individuals, enabling the determination of the distribution of resources, timing, and methods, as well as the authoritative allocation of societal values (Ashindorbe, 2018). In contemporary democratic societies, political parties and party systems serve as an additional instrument used by the governing elite to solidify their grip on authority. Nnoli argues that the nature and functions of institutions tend to align with the interests of the ruling class, since they contribute to the perpetuation of the dominant system of control. However, the primary objective of maintaining or preserving the political power interests of the ruling group contradicts the intended role of political parties and party systems. In theory, these entities are designed to establish a consistent framework of expectations, actions, and conduct that facilitate the peaceful transition of governance from one faction of the ruling elite to another or from one group of individuals within the ruling elite to another (Brosché, Fjelde & Höglund, 2020). The historical record of contemporary democracies reveals that the pursuit of public power via political party elections has consistently been characterised by a lack of caution and has often resulted in tumultuous circumstances, leading to the destruction of property and loss of human life. The Indian sub-continent saw a period of post-election distrust and violence between the Muslim and Hindu communities after the 1937 polls. This unfortunate situation ultimately culminated in the partition of India nine years later (Caramani, 2017). The occurrence of democratic elections in the republics of Yugoslavia in 1990 within the Eastern European region prompted a sequence of crises that ultimately culminated in civil wars and the dissolution of Yugoslavia. In 1999, East Timor saw a significant occurrence of election-related violence, which took place under the observation of the United Nations, the governing body entrusted with the responsibility of overseeing the electoral proceedings. The outbreak of violence resulted in the loss of life for around 2,000 individuals, while an estimated 350,000 more were forced to flee their homes and become displaced. Election periods in several African nations have consistently presented challenging circumstances, sometimes carrying a significant risk of escalating into catastrophes. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), formerly known as Congo, was among the first nations in Africa to see instances of post-election violence. According to Drummond (2015), the outcomes of the impromptu independence polls conducted in May 1960 incited violence, leading to separatist conflicts in resource-rich provinces like as Katanga. The federal elections conducted in Nigeria in 1964 resulted in a significant escalation of violence and crises, surpassing the severity of the terrible events experienced in Congo and relegating them to a lesser degree. The release of the results of the regional elections conducted in the western area of Nigeria in 1965 initiated a series of recurring patterns of ethnic conflict that ultimately led to the eruption of a civil war (Duncan, 2017). West African countries such as Cameroon, Togo, and Nigeria have had instances of post-election violence. Other nations that have had instances of violence, apart from those arising from electoral processes, include Somalia, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Although instances of violence have been seen, it is important to note that these occurrences have not been directly linked to electoral processes. However, it is worth noting that the underlying factors contributing to these crises may have some similarities. Zimbabwe has become part of the group of nations affected by post-election violence. The 2008 elections in Zimbabwe resulted in a wave of violence that had repercussions in adjacent countries, such as South Africa. The arrival of Zimbabwean individuals, seeking refuge from post-election turmoil in their nation, inside South Africa, initiated a xenophobic predicament in the latter due to the ensuing struggle for limited resources such as employment opportunities. The East African area has seen the repercussions of political unrest resulting from electoral processes. The island of Zanzibar saw early consequences within the series of crises that affected the area. The outcome of the 1963 election conducted in Zanzibar did not meet the criteria for effectively neutralising the influence of the tiny Arab elite and establishing a system of governance based on majority rule. The turmoil that ensued reached its climax with the revolution that took place on January 12, 1964 (Government of Kenya, 2016). Uganda has had several instances of political violence and is now grappling with a rebel group situated in the northern region of the nation. The nations of Rwanda and Burundi have had a persistent history of violence, which can be traced back to the socio-political foundations of their respective countries. The periods of tranquilly in both nations are consistently valued. The introduction of multi-party democracy in Kenya in 1991 presented significant challenges to the preexisting social and political structures. The Report of the Judicial Commission (1999) provides an analysis of the political evolution in Kenya, highlighting the establishment and maintenance of a social and political status quo. The subsequent disruption of this status quo resulted in significant pressure on national stability. Kenya achieved independence in 1963, accompanied by the implementation of a complex federal constitution sometimes referred to as the majimbo constitution. This constitution granted significant levels of regional autonomy to various areas within the country. In 1964, precisely one year after gaining independence, the majimbo constitution was superseded by a unitary system, resulting in the transformation of Kenya into a Republic governed by a centralised authority. Under the prevailing conditions, the independent opposition party KADU made the decision to dissolve itself and subsequently join KANU, resulting in the establishment of a de facto one-party state in Kenya. In 1982, the nation underwent a constitutional modification, known as Section 2A, which officially established it as a de jure one-party state. The presence of this structure ensured that the sequence of events remained acceptable. The removal of section 2A of the Constitution and the subsequent emergence of multi-party politics precipitated a significant transformation in the prevailing societal structure. There was a rapid increase in the manifestation of unfavourable ethnic attitudes. The manifestation of this phenomenon became evident via the rise of opposition political groups that were founded around tribal affiliations. The tribal structure of legislative and presidential election outcomes in 1992 and 1997 serves as a clear illustration of this phenomenon. The issue of land, which had previously remained unaddressed and accepted, gained prominence as a delicate subject with the introduction of multi-party politics in 1991 (Jenkins, 2015). The governing party, KANU, expeditiously used the circumstance by capitalising on the issue of land. Since achieving independence, there have been noticeable changes in population patterns due to the decreasing availability of land resources. For a significant number of Kenyans, the introduction of multi-party democracy with the principle of one man one vote implied the need of removing the individuals seen as "foreigners," derogatorily labelled as "madoadoa" in the Rift Valley Province and as "Watu wa Bara" (up country people) in the Coast Province. The promotion of regional chauvinistic tendencies was facilitated by a constitutional amendment which mandated that a presidential candidate, in addition to fulfilling other criteria, must secure a minimum of twenty-five percent of the valid votes cast in at least five out of the eight provinces in order to be declared the president. The phenomenon of ethnic cleansing seen in the Rift Valley and some areas of the Coast provinces during the period from 1991 to 1998 may be ascribed to the prevailing political developments. In some provinces, measures were taken to prevent certain presidential candidates from collecting 25% of the votes by means of suppressing their followers. Certain locations were clearly delineated as KANU zones (Kakuba, 2016). However, the occurrence of violence subsequent to the declaration of the 2007 presidential election outcomes was characterised by intricate dynamics and an astonishing display of impromptu and chaotic behaviour. The dissemination of the presidential election results incited widespread acts of violence across the nation. Therefore, the researcher sought to examine the causes and implication of post electoral conflict in Kenya.

1.2 Statement of the problem

The post-election crisis in Africa started in the Democratic Republic of Congo, resulting in the loss of several lives, including prominent political figures (Kamande, 2021). Nigeria had a comparable situation that ultimately resulted in one of the most violent civil conflicts on the African continent. The Rwandan conflict has been marked by a phase of tranquilly. Kenya had the most severe instances of post-election violence subsequent to the declaration of the 2007 presidential election outcomes. The nation experienced a period of adversity after the declaration of the outcomes. The crisis may have been influenced by a variety of variables, perhaps including both social and economic aspects. Kenya, classified as a developing nation, may have had challenges in achieving equal distribution of the advantages derived from economic progress since its independence. The potential exacerbation of this failure may have been influenced by several causes, including corruption, tribalism, and nepotism. At the point of international involvement, the number of casualties amounted to around 1,200 fatalities and 350,000 people displaced (Mancebo, 2019). Hence, the study will examine the causes and implication of post electoral conflict in Kenya.

1.3       Objective of the study

The broad objective of the study is to examine the causes and implication of post electoral conflict in Kenya. The specific objectives is as follows

i.          Find out the factors that propelled post electoral conflict in Kenya.

ii.        Assess the implication of post electoral conflict on the democracy of Kenya.

iii.      Recommend strategies that could be used to prevent electoral conflict in Kenya.

1.4       Research questions

The following questions have been prepared for the study

i.          What are the factors that propelled post electoral conflict in Kenya?

ii.        What are the implication of post electoral conflict on the democracy of Kenya?

iii.      What are the strategies that could be used to prevent electoral conflict in Kenya?

1.5       Significance of the study

The findings of the study will be significant to the eelectoral body in Kenya, as it will reveal the consequences of an election that was not free and fair, which could give rise to conflicts in the country.

The findings of the study will be significant to political parties fielding candidate that will represent the party in controlling the affairs of the country, as the findings will encourage losers in an election to accept the result of an election in other to avoid crisis in the country.

The findings of the study will be significance to the academic community as it will contribute to the existing literature.

1.6       Scope of the study

The focus of the study is to  examine the causes and implication of post electoral conflict in Kenya. Hence, the study will find out the factors that propelled post electoral conflict in Kenya, assess the implication of post electoral conflict on the democracy of Kenya and Recommend strategies that could be used to prevent electoral conflict in Kenya.therefore, the study is delimited to Kenya.

1.7       Limitation of the study

Like in every human endeavour, the researchers encountered slight constraints while carrying out the study. Insufficient funds tend to impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature, or information and in the process of data collection (internet, questionnaire, and interview), which is why the researcher resorted to a moderate choice of sample size. More so, the researcher will simultaneously engage in this study with other academic work. As a result, the amount of time spent on research will be reduced.

1.8       Definition of terms

Post election:  relating to or occurring in the time following an election.

conflict:  a serious disagreement or argument, typically a protracted one.