PUBLIC PERCEPTION ON THE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF FLOODING IN 2024 IN LAGOS STATE

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

Background of the Study

Floods, like drought and desertification, are natural hazards that arise as a result of excessive hydrological (runoff) event. According to Bello and Jeb (2018), flooding is the most common natural catastrophe, with the frequency of documented flood incidents growing dramatically over the previous 20 years. According to United Nations-Water (2021), there has been a dramatic increase in the number of persons killed or badly injured by flood catastrophes, which affect an estimated 520 million people globally each year, resulting in up to 25 000 deaths in a single year. Floods are widespread across the planet, according to a history of flood occurrences provided in NASA's Earth Observatory (EO), which was cited in Bello, & Jeb (2018), with the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere seeing the most extreme flooding. According to Bello and Jeb (2018), extreme rainfall in Brazil, Bolivia, and Peru during December 2016 to January 2017 caused major flooding and landslides in those nations.

Significantly, the essence of flood attention in study is always linked to its origins, the consequences of severe property damage and even irreparable loss of life, and the control methods. Flood is one of the key problems preventing Africa's population from overcoming poverty, and flood victims are typically urban poor (Adetunji and Oyeleye, 2018). A flood occurs when a watercourse overflows its banks and submerges adjacent regions. To add to this, Egbinola, Olaniran, and Amanambu (2015) define flood as an overflow of a body of water that submerges land. Flood, as defined by the European Union (2019) and Adetunji et'al (2018), is a temporary covering of land by water that was not previously covered by water. Flooding, according to Nelson (2018), is a natural result of stream flow in a constantly changing environment. Flooding to Nelson represents abnormally high rates of discharge, frequently resulting in inundation of land near to streams, and is generally produced by severe or protracted rains.

Surprisingly, many settlements in Nigeria's coastal region, particularly in the Niger-Delta zone and among other places, have weak drainage systems and are thus prone to floods. Flooding threatens an estimated 25 million people, or 28 percent of Nigeria's population, who live in the coastal zone (NCAR, 2012). Flooding poses a significant risk to riverside populations and floodplains, as well as significant impacts on the environment, including aquatic fauna and flora and bank erosion (Twumasi, Merem, Ayala-Silva 2017). According to Twumasi et al. (2017), many aspects such as vulnerability and exposures must be considered in the real evaluation of catastrophe scenarios and losses. Thus , flood risk is the result of flood dangers, susceptibility, and exposure of people, which necessitates an appropriate response in order to minimize or lessen the consequences of flood. 

Contextually, Lagos is particularly susceptible to flooding. In a research conducted by World Bank economist Stephane Hallegatte and his colleagues in 2023, as reported in Business and Maritime West Africa (2023), Lagos was placed 15th out of the top 20 cities in terms of the population at risk of coastal flooding, climate change, and socio-economic changes by the 2070s. Furthermore, the Nigerian Punch (2024) presented a detailed report on the recent heavy rainfall that lasted 10 hours resulting to occurrence of floods in many regions of Lagos, Nigeria, such as Ikoyi, Ipaja-Ayobo, Ajegunle, Ikorodu, Agiliti, Mile 12, and Victoria Island. Similarly, Major roads like the Iyana-Oworonshoki link to the Third Mainland Bridge, LASU/Iba-Ojo road, Awolowo Road in Ikeja, Apapa-Gbagada expressway and the Lagos-Ibadan highway were flooded. Motorists and commuters were also left stranded due to the flooding. In 2024, the Lagos state government formulated a climate change adaptation strategy to mitigate the effects of climate change, specifically addressing the issue of flooding in the state. Despite these endeavors, the city has remained plagued by persistent flooding. Therefore, risk assessment is required in order to determine the likelihood of flood occurrence and its negative implications.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Flooding has been a recurring issue in Nigeria especially for coastal areas. Nkwunonwo et al, (2018) asserts that the main causes of flooding in Nigeria are the insufficient implementation of planning regulations, the blockage of streams and channels as a result of indiscriminate waste disposal practices, and human activities in flood plains. However, the issue of flooding in Lagos has been exacerbated by the proliferation of informal settlements in the city, in addition to its longstanding history of such occurrences.  Ayoade & Akintola (2023) have recognised that the heightened susceptibility to flooding in Lagos, namely on the Island, during the rainy season has been a persistent worry for residents. They have listed it as one of the top three major environmental concerns. Moreover, the phenomenon of urbanization, coupled with insufficient drainage infrastructure, significantly contributes to the occurrence of flooding in Lagos Island. The exponential and unregulated expansion of urban areas has led to the encroachment of natural waterways and wetlands, which traditionally acted as protective barriers against inundation. A study conducted by Adelekan (2023) found that the drainage infrastructure in Lagos is unable to cope with intense rains, leading to waterlogging and flooding. Similarly, the urban drainage system often encounters obstructions due to trash and refuse, hindering the efficient flow of water and exacerbating flood conditions.

Recently, experts have come to a consensus that flood mitigation solutions that rely primarily on structural protection are not sustainable and have limited effectiveness in permanently reducing inundations and high floods (Kundzewicz, 2023). This comprehension has resulted in a shift in how planners and scholars alike approach floods. One element of this modification involves integrating the public's perception of flood hazards into the development of flood mitigation strategies.  Public perception of flood danger is generally seen as a crucial element in flood risk management. Historically, flood risk management programmes have demonstrated a tendency to fail or be negatively impacted due to the oversight of public opinion by policy makers (Brown and Damery, 2022).  Hence, experts have proposed that taking into account the public's perception of risk will enhance the effectiveness of flood risk management programmes (Terpstra, 2020). Hence, it is in the light of these that the study seeks to examinee ppublic perception on the causes and consequences of flooding in Lagos state.

 1.3  Objectives of the Study

The main purpose of this study is to examine public perception on the causes and consequences of flooding in Lagos state. Specifically, the study will;

To examine the extent of flooding in  Lagos state.

To determine the level of awareness of flood risks  among residents in Lagos state.

To examine public attitude towards the causes of flooding in Lagos state.

To determine the consequences of flooding in  Lagos state.

1.4  Research Questions

The following questions have been prepared for the study:

To what extent does flooding occur in Lagos State?

Are residents in Lagos State aware of flood risks?

Do residents in Lagos State contribute  to causes of flooding?

What are the consequences of flooding in Lagos State?

1.5 Research Hypotheses

H0: Public attitude does not significantly contribute to the causes of flooding in Lagos State.

Ha: Public attitude significantly contributes to the causes of flooding in Lagos State.

1.6 Significance of the Study

This study aims to identify areas of insufficient knowledge and areas where public awareness requires improvement, specifically in understanding the consequences of inadequate waste management and drainage systems on flooding. Additionally, it will provide policymakers with a thorough understanding of public opinion, which is essential for developing policies that are attentive to the interests and concerns of the population. Moreover, the findings from this research will assist in the formulation of flood management policies that are centred around the community. This will facilitate cooperation between governmental organisations and citizens in order to execute efficient measures for preventing and mitigating floods. Furthermore, subsequent researchers will use it as a literature review. This means that other students who may decide to conduct studies in this area will have the opportunity to use this study as available literature that can be subjected to critical review. 

1.6 Scope of the study   

The scope of this study is boarded on public perception on the causes and consequences of flooding in Lagos state. Empirically, this study will  examine the extent of flooding, determine the level of awareness of flood risks among residents, examine public attitude towards the causes of flooding and determine the consequences of flooding.

Geographically, the study will be delimited to residents of some selected local government area of Lagos state

1.7 Limitation of the study

In the course of carrying out this study, the researcher experienced some constraints, which included time constraints, financial constraints, language barriers, and the attitude of the respondents. In addition, there was the element of researcher bias. Here, the researcher possessed some biases that may have been reflected in the way the data was collected, the type of people interviewed or sampled, and how the data gathered was interpreted thereafter. The potential for all this to influence the findings and conclusions could not be downplayed. More so, the findings of this study are limited to the sample population in the study area, hence they may not be suitable for use in comparison to other schools, local governments, states, and other countries in the world.

 1.9 Definition of Terms

Flood: an overflow of water that submerges land which is usually dry. Floods can occur due to various reasons including heavy rain, rivers overflowing, dam breakages

Rainfall: the amount of rain that falls over a certain period in a specific area.

Drainage: a natural or artificial removal of surface and sub-surface water from an area.