PUBLIC PERCEPTION AND AWARENESS OF FLOOD RISKS IN NIGERIAN CITIES: CASE STUDY OF LAGOS

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

Globally, disasters are known to have a devastating effect on economic growth, incomes, agriculture, and the well-being of society and human existence (Woods, 2017). They are unforeseen occurrences that have the potential to result in fatalities or injuries. Abang (2021) defined floods as a worldwide calamity that occurs when a significant volume of water overflows the river channel and its floodplain in a relatively short period, causing damage to valuable assets such as properties. Floods are a type of natural hazard that occur when there is an extreme amount of water flowing in a stream or river (Onifade, 2020). Alternatively, it might be interpreted as the inundation of a typically dry area due to a temporary rise in the water level of a stream, river, lake, or sea (Amadi, 2022). Prolonged precipitation events are the primary common cause of flooding worldwide. Floods are characterised as sudden and excessive water flow events that can have devastating consequences and outcomes (Hula and Udoh, 2015; Yoade, Onifade and Olajide, 2019). 

Flooding is a prominent and widespread environmental concern in Nigeria (Onuoha, 2017). The challenges posed by floods are mostly caused by the rise in sea levels and the occurrence of storm surges. These factors significantly endanger human lives, property, livelihoods, and infrastructure in locations that are prone to flooding (Onwuka, 2020). According to Ikekpeazu (2021), flooding is a significant and devastating natural disaster in the state, causing loss of life and extensive damage to structures, particularly residences, farmlands, and infrastructure, surpassing the impact of any other natural event. Lagos state spans an area of 3,577 square kilometres and is home to an estimated population of 21,000,000 individuals (www.wikipedia, 2018). A significant portion of the mainland of Lagos state was inundated by the 2023 flood. This phenomenon results in the significant encroachment of a large land area and affects a substantial number of individuals in various ways inside the Abolade community (Abolade et al., 2023). Nevertheless, numerous studies have demonstrated that the afflictions caused by flooding have affected nearly every corner and crevice of the city (West, 2020). 

Residents of Lagos have been living in drought-prone areas for generations, and as a result, occurrences of floods are not a new phenomenon to them. Similar to other heavily urbanised regions in emerging nations, Lagos state has had a rapid population growth that has resulted in significant changes in land utilisation activities. Approximately 44% of the residents of Lagos state reside in the coastal regions (UN Atlas, 2017), which are susceptible to flooding. Land use changes, particularly, exert a direct influence on the magnitude and disposition of floods (Gabriel et al 2022). Flash floods are common occurrences in Nigeria during the rainy season (May-October), however the flood events in the year 2012 have been described as the most devastating in over 40 years (Hula and Udoh, 2017).

Existing information from literature suggests that the losses resulting from flood hazards are expected to rise in the future, according to the projected implications of climate change by the IPCC in 2017.  Research indicates that both countries and households are likely to become more vulnerable to flooding due to population growth and spatial expansion (Shina et al., 2022). Lagos, Nigeria, is particularly susceptible to flooding. According to a recent study conducted by Peace et al. in 2024, the city of Lagos was rated 15th out of the top 20 cities in terms of population that will be affected by coastal flooding, climate change, and socio-economic transformation in the 2070s.  In 2012, the Lagos state government formulated a climate change adaptation strategy to mitigate the effects of climate change, specifically addressing the issue of flooding in the state. Despite these endeavours, the city has remained plagued by persistent flooding (Bolwatife et al., 2019).

Flooding is a persistent and substantial issue in numerous Nigerian cities, including Lagos. Lagos, being one of Nigeria's most populous and economically significant cities, encounters significant difficulties in managing and mitigating floods (Temitope, 2024). The efficacy of flood risk management measures is significantly impacted by public perception and awareness, despite continuous endeavours to tackle these concerns. Gaining insight into the perceptions and reactions of Lagos citizens towards flood threats is essential for formulating efficient and enduring flood control policies (Brown & Damilola, 2023). The public's perception and awareness of flood dangers are crucial in influencing how individuals and communities respond to flood catastrophes. When residents possess comprehensive knowledge regarding the causes, hazards, and strategies to reduce the impact of floods, they are more inclined to adopt proactive measures to save themselves and their properties. On the other hand, a lack of knowledge might result in insufficient planning and response, making the effects of floods worse.

The public's perception and awareness of flood dangers are crucial in influencing how individuals and communities respond to flood catastrophes. When residents possess comprehensive knowledge on the factors, dangers, and methods of reducing the impact of floods, they are more inclined to adopt proactive measures to save themselves and their properties (Brown & Damilola, 2023). On the other hand, a lack of knowledge might result in insufficient planning and response, making the effects of floods worse. Recently, experts have come to a consensus that flood mitigation strategies that rely primarily on structural protection are not sustainable and have limited effectiveness in permanently reducing inundations and extreme floods (Kunle, 2023).  This comprehension has led to a shift in how planners and scholars approach floods. 

An element of this alteration is integrating the public's perception of flood hazards into the development of flood mitigation techniques. Public perception of flood danger is increasingly considered a crucial element in flood risk management. Hence, it is crucial to take into account this pivotal aspect in any endeavour to enhance community readiness. Past flood risk management programmes have demonstrated a tendency to fail or be negatively impacted when policymakers disregard public perception (Brown & Damilola, 2023). Thus, experts have proposed that taking into account the public's perception of risk will enhance the effectiveness of flood risk management programmes (Tejuosho, 2023). Therefore, the necessity for this investigation arises.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Flooding is a widespread issue in Lagos, which is Nigeria's largest city and commercial centre. The city's swift urbanisation, proximity to the ocean, and insufficient infrastructure render it extremely susceptible to recurrent and intense flooding. The effectiveness of flood risk management in Lagos relies on both infrastructural enhancements and governmental interventions, as well as the perception and understanding of flood threats among its population.

Ecosystem degradation in Nigeria is impairing their ability to mitigate floods (NIHSA, 2021). The extraction of sand resources, driven by the significant need for raw materials in the production of cement, concrete, glass, and asphalt for infrastructure projects, is causing a permanent depletion of natural barriers that protect against rising sea levels and intensifying storms (UNEP, 2022). While sand resources have a crucial role in providing ecosystem services, preserving biodiversity, and ensuring the well-being of communities (UNEP, 2022), they are currently being exploited for development objectives (Adebayo, 2017). The practice of sand mining has had a significant negative influence on the environment, including habitat destruction, water pollution, and increased water turbidity. These effects have had a severe impact on biodiversity (Adebayo, 2017; Adekunbi et al., 2018). Despite the negative effects on the environment, authorities are not strict in regulating sand mining, particularly when it comes to uncontrolled miners. This leniency allows for dredging to take place in remote places, which in turn contributes to the expansion of an industry that both harms the environment and grows rapidly. 

A study reveals that a considerable number of Nigerians either underestimate the threat of flooding or are unaware of the potential seriousness of its consequences. The lack of awareness regarding potential risks might lead to a lack of preparation and ineffective implementation of individual and community-level steps to mitigate those risks (Ayobami, 2024). Furthermore, the general population lacks a thorough understanding and awareness of the causes of floods, the locations that are most vulnerable to it, and the most effective ways for mitigating its impact. Erroneous beliefs and lack of understanding might result in inadequate reactions when faced with flood situations. Okafor (2024) suggests that current communication and education initiatives designed to increase flood awareness may lack effectiveness or adequacy. Information dissemination may not effectively reach all sectors of the population, especially those who are vulnerable and marginalised. Disadvantaged groups, such as individuals residing in informal settlements, experience a greater impact from floods as a result of their restricted access to resources and knowledge. It is essential to increase their knowledge and readiness in order to decrease the total danger of flooding in Lagos. Therefore, the necessity for doing this investigation arises.

Objectives of the study

The primary objective of this study is to critically evaluate Public Perception and Awareness of Flood Risks in Nigerian Cities: Case Study of Lagos. Specific objectives of this study are to:

To assess the level of awareness and knowledge among residents about flood risks, causes, and mitigation strategies.

To determine the impact of flood on residents of Lagos

To examine the effectiveness of current communication and education programs in raising awareness and promoting flood risk mitigation.

To enhance public awareness and community engagement in flood risk management

1.4 Research Questions

The following research questions will be answered in this study:

What is the level of awareness and knowledge among residents about flood risks, causes, and mitigation strategies?

What is the impact of flood on residents of Lagos?

How effective is the current communication and education programs in raising awareness and promoting flood risk mitigation?

What strategies are adopted to enhance public awareness and community engagement in flood risk management.

1.5 Research Hypotheses

The following research hypotheses will validate this study;

Ho: There are no communication and education programs in raising awareness and promoting flood risk mitigation in Lagos.

Ha: There are communication and education programs in raising awareness and promoting flood risk mitigation in Lagos.

1.6 Significance of the study

Gaining insight into the public's perspective and awareness of flood threats is essential for implementing effective flood risk management strategies in Lagos. The objective of this study is to gain important understanding of how communities perceive and react to flood threats, as well as evaluate the efficacy of existing awareness and education initiatives. The study aims to assist policymakers, urban planners, and community leaders in developing more efficient flood risk management policies and programmes for Lagos. By identifying gaps and suggesting specific measures, it seeks to ultimately minimise the impact of flooding on the city's population. 

Moreover, the way the general public perceives things has a significant impact on the priorities and execution of policies. An analysis of public awareness can provide policymakers with valuable insights into the specific areas that require interventions, such as infrastructure development, drainage maintenance, and emergency response planning. The study's findings can offer valuable perspectives for the formulation of policies aimed at environmental conservation, sustainable land administration, and disaster risk reduction. This involves improving the enforcement of environmental regulations and promoting the construction of environmentally sustainable infrastructure.

Furthermore, environmental degradation and insufficient waste management frequently worsen flood risks. Public awareness studies can enhance the adoption of sustainable activities and behaviours that mitigate environmental stressors, hence reducing susceptibility to floods. In Lagos, vulnerable areas frequently experience the full force of flood consequences as a result of insufficient infrastructure and socio-economic inequalities. An analysis of public perception can reveal disparities in flood risk exposure and promote the adoption of inclusive policies and solutions.

Moreover, upcoming scholars will utilise it as a thorough examination of the current body of scholarly work. Consequently, prospective students with an inclination towards this field of study will have access to this research as a dependable and comprehensive source of knowledge.

1.7 Scope of the study

Broadly, this study focus is to critically evaluate Public Perception and Awareness of Flood Risks in Nigerian Cities: Case Study of Nigeria. Specifically, this study seeks to assess Public Perception of Flood Risks in Nigeria, assess the level of awareness and knowledge among residents about flood risks, causes, and mitigation strategies and determine the impact of flood on Nigerians. Further, this study will focus examining the effectiveness of current communication and education programs in raising awareness and promoting flood risk mitigation in Nigeria and it also seeks to enhance public awareness and community engagement in flood risk management.

The study is carried out in Alimosho, Lagos state.

1.8 Limitations of the study

As is common in all human endeavours, the researchers faced minor limitations when conducting the study. The main limitation was the lack of extensive literature on the subject, as there is limited data available for Public Perception and Awareness of Flood Risks in Nigerian Cities: Case Study of Lagos. Consequently, a significant amount of time and effort was necessary to locate the appropriate materials, books, or information and to gather data. 

Additionally, this study is constrained by its small sample size and narrow geographical scope, focusing just on Nigeria. Consequently, the results of this study are not applicable for generalization, thereby leaving room for further research. 

Additionally, the researcher's limitations were primarily due to financial constraints, as they are a student and do not have a source of income to sustain themselves. It was challenging to afford transportation expenses to and from the study location due to the high cost of transportation, which is influenced by inflation in Nigeria today.

Furthermore, the researcher faced a time constraint due to the need to do this research while also fulfilling the obligations of attending lectures and other educational activities.

1.9 Definition of terms

Flood: Flood is an overflow of water onto normally dry land. The inundation of a normally dry area caused by rising water in an existing waterway, such as a river, stream, or drainage ditch. Ponding of water at or near the point where the rain fell. Flooding is a longer term event than flash flooding: it may last days or weeks.

Flood risk: Flood risk is a combination of the probability (likelihood or chance) of a flood event happening and the consequences (impact) if it occurred.

Urbanization: Urbanization is the process through which cities grow, and higher and higher percentages of the population come to live in the city.