CHAPTER ONE

1.0 INTRODUCTION

          Andreas Faludi states that “Planning and Forecasting is the Queen Mother function of management (organization) and that if planning and forecasting fail what/who will you direct, control, budget, staff, co-ordinate or organize rather than failure and shame”. Again he state of tension resulting from observing unexpected events. (Toulinin,1960)

Forecasting is preparing of an organizational future objectives and its current material and personnel inventory, the general or departmental manager makes an estimate of the current material and human resources that will be able to do in the future and how many more human and material resources the organization must hire to meet its goals (Needle 1999:178).

Any business organization without element of forecasting in like driving a car blind- folded and being directed by a man looking out through the back window. Furthermore, forecasting is prediction; it is an effort by enterprises to know what the future holds for it. Henry Fayol speaks of prevalence as the essence of management.

Modern business management has become a complex activity and so there is the need for adequate forecasting, the need for adequate forecasting is apparent from the hey role it plays in planning Koontz et al stated that “as influence in plans of the entire environment outside the enterprises has come to be increasingly recognizes forecasting of the environment has risen in importance”.

Planning bridges the gap from where we are to where we want to go planning can also be defined as “ a predetermined cause of action that helps to provide purpose and direction for members of an enterprise.

Andreas Faludi state “Man’s understanding of this world and his ability to act in it depends on his constructing an imaginary in his own mind this applies equally well to the planner’s understanding of himself and his appreciation”. Planning in its simplest meaning is the determination of anything in advance of action. Planning is defined by Koontz O. Donneil as, “deciding in advance what to do who is to do it, when to do it and why it should be done”.

Planning and Forecasting are compliment in that for a good result both go together they could be regarded as independent parts that make a specified whole writing also in the concept, Koontz O’ Donneil states that forecasting especially where participated throughout the organization may help to unify and co-ordinate plans. By focusing attention on the future, it assists in bringing a singleness of purpose to planning”.

1.1     BACKGROUND OF THE RESEARCH

          The popular super market called Eastern Shop was established in May 28, 1960 almost five (5) Months after the independence of this country, this took place at Ogui Road Enugu then Anambra State now Enugu State which is formerly known as the headquarters of Eastern Nigeria.

The supermarket is situated opposite NnamdiAzikiwe Stadium and around it were other big shops like Bubble’s, ABC Transport etc. the amazing thing concerns this shop is that the manager or the sole proprietor is a family man that had engage in other business and finally settle in opening a big supermarket. He entered into the business with little or no experience in the field of supermarket business.

Originally the name of managing director of the supermarket is Chief M.O. Okoli, Ozo Zulu Agulu 1 of Agulu in Aniocha Local Government Area of (old and new) Anambra State. He is one of the pioneer members of Enugu State association of supermarket this was to enable him to curb some of the problems that he is passing and planning in business. The supermarket has other branches in Lagos, and Onitsha. In the establishment, he employed general operation manager (GOM) who sees to the running of the business. The company also has shop manager who direct the affairs of cashier, store manager and restaurant department and report to the GOM. Eastern shop is made up of five (5) departments/ units.

·        Accounting department

·        Cashier   department

·        Store department

·        Restaurant department

·        Cold room department

Eastern shop deals mostly on consumer’s goods like cosmetics, wears, candy foods, baby wears and toys. The problem of proper planning and forecasting is among the major problem that limits the more expansion of the business these can be clearly seen from an adage that says “ that business is full of risks”.

Besides, the researchers were able to note the sum of N500 Naira was used as initial capital of the business and today the property of the business is on millions and it have more than twenty people as employees, this simply means that it is no longer small- scale business as the law required. But as a result of inadequate application role of good understanding in the techniques of forecasting and planning integration in business; he cannot make good pricing quality and quantity of product sales.

Since improper planning is as good as not planning at all based on the above promising and manifesting problem, these calls for the researchers to investigate the project topic to help the present situation that is facing the business.

1.2     STATEMENT OF RESEARCH PROBLEM

          It has obviously been proved that “He who fails to plans to fail” And it is also believed that he who fails to put records and recognizance of past event should not predict/ forecast future. If anybody that fails to envisage the future is bound to crash. Planning and forecasting have been integrated to be wonderful tools for effective management. Since planning and forecasting are like touch light used in darkness. We also believed that business dwell in the world of dynamism and unsteady setting, which called for effective use of planning and forecasting. It can also be seen as an eye at every business that wants to grow in a competitive environment.

In attempt to plan as may think they do only half bake planning which is as good as not planning at all in which most of their planning   has

Found wanting because it lacks the basic elements of planning as regards as follow.

1.     Futuristic in outlook that is planning some future problem of business at today’s doorsteps beside that future can never be predicted with hundred percent efficiency. This is why provision has to be made to accommodate future uncertainties.

2.     Most people in their planning lacks action, all planning need to imitate action since mere stating of the expected income and expenditure during fiscal year calls for action to make sure that the objectives are realized.

1.3 AREA OF CONCENTRATION/CONCERNED

          The problems planning and forecasting encounter in an organization affects its productivity. Over the years, business organization has tried a lot to eradicate these problems that sometime engulf managerial progress in Eastern problems are stated thus:

1.     To know how planning and forecasting in Eastern Shop Ltd. Carryout tasks.

2.     To know both the internal and external affairs of the company.

3.     Whether the problems are caused as a result of poor motivation.

4.     What other variable could explain why the problems have not been eradicated?

5.     To know whether the working environment is conducive for planning and forecasting.

These problems also attached itself with the research questions and we will use the same opportunity to discuss the research questions.

1.4     OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

          Having know that planning is organic function of management; it bring much good to business in various arrived and get to arrive will benefit from these topic, if well utilized especially in areas of pricing, quality, man-power, money, capital control and so on.

This study is meant to examine the problems of planning and forecasting in a business organization. It will examine the role, which manager’s tries to implement by using planning and forecasting to achieve effective and efficient management of the organization and society at large. The research will also find solution to some of the problems manager’s encounter by implementing planning and forecasting in their day- to- day activities. However, the importance of the research to management of any organization both profit and non-profit organizations students both graduate and undergraduate will not be over emphasized. Family will also benefit from it, since management is alone by all and planning is first born and major aspect of management.

Government agency, and parastatals will also benefit from this topic by applying knowledge of planning and forecasting in service of civil servant. Politicians of these 5th republic and others to come well benefit from it by planning their political manifesto ideology.

Generally, everybody or anybody and all that want to survive in these ever dynamic business world must learnt to plan and forecast in these perilous or risk evil days of ours.

1.5     SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

1.6     RESEARCH QUESTION    

          These questions were also raised to scrap out issues that manager is born not made and since proper planning and forecasting has brought increase in productivity that is immeasurable and quantifiable in today’s business.     

1.     Why is planning and forecasting needed in an organization?

2.     What impact can it create in progress of business?

3.     Does planning and forecasting has any theoretical backups and background?

4.     Can we really do without planning and for casting?

5.     What makes planning and forecasting organic function of management?

6.     Is information an effective tool for planning and forecasting in business organization?

On the reason why, is planning and forecasting needed in an organization, both charitable and none-profit organization had fail, because of inadequate planning and forecasting.

1.7 RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

          This research was supported by some assumption which will be tested at the end of this research work.

1.     H1: Planning and forecasting are significantly related to the growth of business management.

H0: Planning and forecasting are not significantly related to the growth of business management.

2.     H1: Effective planning is significantly related to forecasting and directly proportional to the managerial effectiveness in any company

H0: Effective planning not significantly related to forecasting and not directly proportional to the managerial effectiveness in any company

1.8     LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

During the course of performing/researching this project work, the researcher encountered a lot of challenges as well as opposition which ranges from financial constraints, time factor, sourcing of material etc. this factors in their own ways, slowed down the speedy progress of this work that resulted to the researcher not being able to finish the research work on time as is required

1.9     DEFINITION OF TERMS

Management:-  This is the application of human and material resources in achieving the objective of an organization effectively and efficiently through planning and forecasting.

Manager: –   This is a person that makes use of the material and human resources of an organization in achieving their objectives.

Planning :-  It is the act or process of making plan.  Planning is a major component of the management process, which is concerned with defining ends, means and conduct at every level of organizational life.

Forecasting:-  To say what one think will happen in the future base on  information that he has now.

Organization:- It is a system of behaviour designed to enable humans and their machines accomplished goals. Organization is also defined as the sum total of the ways in which it divides the labour distinct takes and then achieves co-ordination between them.

Business:-  This is any economic activity oriented towards producing goods and services at a profit for the satisfaction of mankind

This material content is developed to serve as a GUIDE for students to conduct academic research