THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN ADDRESSING INFLATION-INDUCED HUNGER (A FOCUS ON PRESIDENT TINUBU'S ADMINISTRATION)

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

Background of the study

Although numerous efforts have been made to mitigate the global hunger issue, food insecurity and undernutrition persist as significant challenges in numerous nations (Barry, 2018). Ensuring food security is important regardless of the political system and socioeconomic conditions. However, it is particularly crucial in developing regions of the world. In these areas, population growth and the occurrence of environmental events like floods, droughts, and extreme temperature or rainfall fluctuations often endanger food security (Payne et al, 2017). Moreover, as a result of increased food demand and decreased agricultural output, the combination of increasing food costs and income disparities could have an adverse impact on the ability of impoverished households to acquire and obtain sufficient food. Poverty, war and violence, natural catastrophes, climate change, and population expansion are widely recognised as the primary factors contributing to hunger and malnutrition (Azeez, 2021).

 Based on the latest data from the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO, 2017), approximately 13% of people in developing countries are experiencing undernourishment. Additionally, Porkka et al. (2018) have highlighted that feeding the global population is a challenging task that is expected to worsen in the future. In 2018, the world population surpassed 7.6 billion individuals and is expected to reach 9.2 billion by 2050. This growth in population will lead to a significant increase in food demand, estimated to be between 59% and 102% according to Currey et al. (2019). Considering the information presented, it appears imperative to augment agricultural output by approximately 60%–70% in order to meet the food demands of the worldwide population by 2050 (Turner, 2021). Foley et al. (2021) and Tilman et al. (2022) argue that food production must double by 2050 in order to satisfy the growing demand.

Agriculture, within the economic framework, is interconnected with many sectors and plays a crucial role in providing inclusive growth that is vital for development (Timilehin et al, 2023). Agriculture is essential for the maintenance of life and serves as the foundation for economic progress, particularly in supplying sufficient and nourishing food that is crucial for human advancement, as well as providing raw materials for industrial purposes (Badejo, 2023). Agricultural policy drives sustainable agricultural growth. The agricultural policy of Nigeria encompasses the strategic framework and action plans created by the government to achieve comprehensive growth and development in the agricultural sector (OSGF, 2024).

Agriculture has a crucial role in enhancing food availability and ensuring food security (Parker et al., 2019). Although there is consensus regarding the anticipated rise in global food demand in the future, there is ambiguity regarding the ability of global agriculture to meet this demand by increasing food production (Turner, 2021). Enhancing agricultural production and expanding the use of agricultural land appear to be viable approaches to eliminate hunger and improve food provision. 

Nevertheless, Nigeria's current technology and expertise are insufficient to meet the future demand for food in 2024 and beyond (Shonekan et al., 2023). The data highlights the necessity of increasing investments in agricultural research and extension systems inside the country in order to enhance the efficiency of agricultural production per unit of land and per agricultural worker. These findings indicate that it is crucial to prioritise investments that will promote increased production in African agriculture while minimising environmental damage. Facilitating technology transfer from developed to poor countries is necessary to promote these processes, bridge technical gaps, and remove knowledge obstacles (Emeka et al., 2022).Given that agriculture has a significantly greater influence on poverty reduction and enhancement of food security compared to other sectors of the economy, and taking into account variations in Nigeria's agricultural production potential, the objective of this paper is to examine the role of agricultural policies in addressing hunger caused by inflation in Nigeria, with a specific focus on President Tinubu's administration. 

Under President Bola Tinubu's leadership, Nigeria has experienced a significant increase in food insecurity due to the high inflation rate in the economy. The food inflation rate experienced a significant increase to 46 percent in September 2023. According to the World Food Programme (WFP, 2023), in November 2023, around 42 percent of the population in 26 states in Nigeria and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) are currently experiencing food security issues, with only just enough food to meet their basic needs. In Nigeria, the problem of hunger caused by inflation is a major concern. The increasing prices of food frequently surpass the rise of income, making it challenging for numerous households to purchase sufficient nutrition (Agwu, 2022). The agricultural sector is vital in addressing this challenge by enhancing food production and maintaining price stability. This study examines the agricultural policies enacted under President Tinubu's administration and evaluates their efficacy in mitigating hunger caused by inflation.

In the past year, there has been a 5.4 million increase in the number of individuals facing extreme food insecurity, bringing the total to 27 million. This accounts for almost 10 percent of the population (Jimoh et al., 2024). 

Food insecurity is a pressing problem in Nigeria, worsened by multiple socio-economic factors. Gaining a comprehensive understanding of these factors is crucial for developing efficient strategies to address hunger and guarantee food security. This study specifically examines the Tinubu administration period in order to analyse the socio-economic elements that contribute to food insecurity in Nigeria.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Food insecurity continues to be a long-standing problem in Nigeria, worsened by inflation that greatly affects the ability of many households to afford food. The escalating expenses of food items, influenced by several economic and structural reasons, have resulted in heightened levels of hunger and malnutrition. Although agricultural policies can help reduce these consequences by increasing food production, ensuring market stability, and improving the efficiency of food distribution networks, it is crucial to assess the effectiveness of these policies in the present circumstances. 

Research findings and literature have identified Low Access to Agricultural Credit as a widespread obstacle to enhancing agricultural output in Nigeria (Akpan et al. 2024). Multiple studies have established a positive correlation between access to agricultural loans and agricultural productivity. However, smallholder farmers in Nigeria have been unable to obtain this crucial input. According to Dayo et al. (2023), it is often challenging for smallholder farmers to access banks that have substantial loan money. Collateral issues and high interest rates sometimes prevent many potential rural smallholder recipients from accessing loans. Furthermore, agricultural loans typically have limited durations and predetermined repayment periods, which makes them unsuitable for financing yearly crop cultivation or livestock farming (Bassey, 2019).

 Ademola (2022) identified another limitation, which is the insufficient and unpredictable funding for agricultural research. Inadequate funding for research hinders the improvement of agricultural technology, resulting in a lack of increase in farm revenue, development of rural employment, reduction in food costs, establishment of agro-based companies, and overall economic growth (Oni et al., 2018). Simply put, the lack of innovative technologies in agriculture will hinder the increase in agricultural productivity and the alleviation of rural poverty. According to Ademola (2022), the allocation of funds for public research and development (R&D) in Nigeria has been consistently low and unpredictable since the country gained independence. Additionally, the government's budgeting process for funding agricultural research is intricate and convoluted. The interval between the submission of proposed budgets by research agencies and the approval and disbursement of funding is protracted and frequently incongruous with research work schedules. The allocated funds and the procedures for distributing them frequently deviate significantly from the intended budgets of the research organisations (Owoh, 2022). Therefore, the purpose of this study is to address these requirements. 

Objectives of the study

The primary objective of this study is to critically investigate the role of agricultural policies in addressing inflation-induced hunger (a focus on President Tinubu's administration). Specific objectives of this study are to:

To determine the prevalence of inflation induced hunger in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration.

To investigate the economic impact of inflation on food prices during the Tinubu administration.

To identify challenges and constraints faced in implementing agricultural policies aimed at addressing inflation-induced hunger.

To proffer strategic interventions to improve food security outcomes in Nigeria.

1.4 Research Questions

The following research questions which are in line with the objectives of this study will be answered in this study:

What is the level of the prevalence of inflation induced hunger in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration?

What are the economic impact of inflation on food prices during the Tinubu administration?

What are the challenges and constraints faced in implementing agricultural policies aimed at addressing inflation-induced hunger?

What are the strategic interventions to improve food security outcomes in Nigeria?

1.5 Research Hypotheses

To determine the effectiveness of this study, the following research null hypotheses will be formulated to guide the study and it will be tested at 0.05% levels of significance.:

Ho: The level of prevalence of inflation induced hunger in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration is low

Ha: The level of prevalence of inflation induced hunger in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration is high.

1.6 Significance of the study

The study focuses on a crucial topic that has a significant impact on the welfare and progress of Nigeria. The objective of this study is to establish a vital standard for the agricultural sector in Nigeria, as well as for policymakers and the government. Moreover, it will enhance the overall standard of living for Nigerians.

The study will have great significance for the agriculture sector as it will help in developing ways to enhance agricultural productivity, which is essential for ensuring economic stability and promoting growth. Enhanced food security can result in economic advantages by diminishing poverty and enhancing labour productivity.

Moreover, this study will furnish government officials and policy makers with crucial insights that will assist in shaping and executing efficient agriculture and food security programmes. Moreover, it will provide the administration with valuable insights into areas that require enhancement or modification.

Furthermore, future scholars will utilise it as a thorough examination of the current body of literature. Consequently, other students with an interest in studying this subject will have the opportunity to utilise this work as preexisting information that may be critically evaluated. The study significantly enhances the existing scholarly understanding of how agricultural policies can effectively address hunger caused by inflation, with a specific focus on President Tinubu's administration.

1.7 Scope of the study

Broadly, this study focuses to critically investigate the role of agricultural policies in addressing inflation-induced hunger (a focus on President Tinubu's administration). Specifically, this study seeks to determine the prevalence of inflation induced hunger in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration and investigate the economic impact of inflation on food prices during the Tinubu administration. Further, this study will focus on identifying challenges and constraints faced in implementing agricultural policies aimed at addressing inflation-induced hunger and it also seeks to proffer strategic interventions to improve food security outcomes in Nigeria.

1.8 Limitations of the study

Like in any human undertaking, the researchers encountered small constraints during the investigation. The primary constraint was the scarcity of comprehensive literature on the topic, given the limited availability of data for the role of agricultural policies in addressing inflation-induced hunger (a focus on President Tinubu's administration). Therefore, a substantial amount of time and effort was required to find the suitable materials, books, or information and collect data.

 Furthermore, this study is limited by its limited sample size and restricted geographical reach, namely concentrating just on Nigeria. Hence, the findings of this study cannot be extrapolated, thereby necessitating additional research. 

In addition, the researcher encountered a time limitation as a result of the necessity to do this research while simultaneously meeting the responsibilities of attending lectures and engaging in other educational pursuits.

1.9 Definition of terms

Food security: Food security is when a person is able to obtain a sufficient amount of healthy food on a day-to-day basis.

Food insecurity: Food insecurity is when a person cannot find adequate amounts of healthy food on a daily basis. Food security happens when a person does get the recommended amount of healthy food on a daily basis.

Inflation: Inflation is the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time. Inflation is typically a broad measure, such as the overall increase in prices or the increase in the cost of living in a country.