ECONOMIC RECESSION, INFLATION, AND HUNGER IN NIGERIA: EVIDENCE FROM PRESIDENT TINUBU'S ADMINISTRATION

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

Background of the study

Food refers to any consumable substance that is ingested or imbibed to sustain life and promote development. Proper consumption of food, both in terms of quality and quantity, is essential for maintaining a healthy and productive life (Kent, 2019). Healthy eating is the consumption of a nutritionally balanced diet, which consists of the appropriate quantities and proportions of foods necessary for maintaining health or promoting growth. Failure to obtain these essential nutrients can lead to the development of health issues (Kent, 2019).

Based on the 2017 report from the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), the global population is projected to increase by 2.3 billion people, or more than a third, from 2009 to 2050. The majority of this growth is anticipated to occur in developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, with Nigeria experiencing the fastest population growth. The ramifications of these trends indicate that the market demand for food will continue to increase. Consequently, meeting the needs of a growing population would necessitate an overall increase in food production, particularly in essential commodities such as grains, cattle, and dairy products (Parker et al., 2018).

As projected by the FAO, Nigeria's population experienced a significant increase, rising from 180 million in 2015 to over 200 million in 2022. This population growth has consequently led to an increased need for food. Due to the fact that 70% of the Government's income comes from the sales of Crude oil, the country began experiencing a recession in 2016. This was caused by the decline in the price of crude oil, which dropped from $118 per barrel to below $50. As a result, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by -2.06% in the second quarter of 2016 (Tokere, 2023). An economic recession, as defined by the IMF (2017), is a substantial decrease in economic activity that affects various sectors of the economy and lasts for more than a few months. This reduction is typically observed in indicators such as real Gross Domestic Product, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. Currently, there is an economic downturn characterised by reduced productivity, lack of available funds, and high levels of unemployment. 

According to John (2023), there is a strong correlation between economic recession, inflation, and hunger, and these issues significantly impact the socio-economic structure of a country. Inflation, as defined by Cane et al. (2019), is the increase in the general price level of goods and services over time, which reduces the value of money. In Nigeria, inflation has been a chronic issue, driven by causes such as inadequate monetary policy, exorbitant prices of food and fuel, and disruptions in the supply chain (Ogooluwa, 2022). Under President Tinubu's administration, there has been a significant increase in inflation, causing a rise in the cost of living and making basic needs less affordable for many Nigerians. Consequently, this has resulted in widespread hunger among the population (Eka, 2024). These difficulties have been especially noticeable throughout President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's term. 

Nigerians are facing various repercussions of the recession, including elevated inflation, widespread hunger, job losses, unemployment, reduced sales of goods and services, declining income, reliance on imports, government budget deficits, a downturn in the stock market, a high cost of living, elevated interest rates, inadequate infrastructure, diminished purchasing power, and food insecurity (Sunny et al., 2024). Food security was severely impacted during this period of economic hardship. Food security, as defined by FAO (2017), refers to the state in which all individuals have consistent and unrestricted access to an adequate supply of safe, nutritious food that meets their dietary requirements and personal food choices, hence promoting good health. The ongoing economic downturn in Nigeria has resulted in a state of food insecurity, as there is a definite decrease in the availability of sufficient food due to instability in food production, rising food prices, and income deficits.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu took office with a determination to rejuvenate the economy, control inflation, and tackle the issue of food hunger (Punch, 2024). The administration has implemented many policy initiatives with the goal of fostering economic growth, stabilising prices, and enhancing agricultural output (Ekemini, 2024). These encompass budgetary reforms, investments in infrastructure, and assistance for smallholder farmers. Nevertheless, the investigation of the efficacy of these approaches in alleviating the economic difficulties and enhancing food security is still a crucial field of examination. Hence, the necessity for doing this investigation.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Nigeria has been contending with economic difficulties for a number of years, and under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's tenure, the country has persistently encountered substantial obstacles pertaining to economic crisis, inflation, and famine. These concerns are interconnected and have significant consequences for the welfare of the population, especially individuals with low incomes. Gaining a comprehensive understanding of the complexity and interconnectedness of these difficulties is vital in order to formulate and implement impactful policies and solutions. 

The confluence of economic contraction and inflation has intensified hunger and food insecurity in Nigeria. A significant number of households face challenges in affording an adequate and nourishing diet, resulting in malnutrition, particularly among children (Premium times, 2024). The scarcity of food is worsened by low agricultural output, insufficient food distribution networks, and the effects of climate change (Juwon, 2024). Individuals with low incomes in Nigeria bear the full force of these economic difficulties. Their limited financial resources make them more susceptible to swings in food costs and economic downturns. The lack of inexpensive and nutritious food access has severe repercussions on individuals' health, productivity, and general quality of life (Barry, 2023). Children residing in these households are especially vulnerable, with potential long-term consequences for their physical and cognitive development.

In a similar vein, Famiyiwa (2022) highlighted that a significant increase in inflation rates can result in significant economic imbalances, such as a deficit in the balance of payments, devaluation of the national currency, and a decrease in the purchasing power of the working class. These factors often lead to frequent labour union protests for higher wages (Segun et al., 2024). The frequent down tooling by workers in Nigeria has a detrimental influence on the economy, as it leads to reduced productivity and paralysis of services, particularly in the educational and health sectors. If the health and education sectors are consistently non-functional, the human capital function will experience setbacks, ultimately impeding the country's economic progress (Sebastian, 2023). 

Ayoola (2024) argues that President Tinubu's administration has made efforts to tackle these difficulties through economic and agricultural policies. However, the continued presence of economic crisis, inflation, and hunger indicates that these measures may not be entirely successful. It is necessary to conduct a thorough assessment of the policies that have been put into effect so far in order to identify any deficiencies and opportunities for enhancement. Gaining a comprehensive understanding of the efficacy of these policies is essential in order to develop more focused and influential initiatives. Hence, the necessity for doing this investigation.

Objectives of the study

The primary objective of this study is to critically evaluate economic recession, inflation, and hunger in Nigeria: evidence from President Tinubu's administration. Specific objectives of this study are to:

To examine the extent of the economic recession, inflation and hunger under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration.

To analyze the impact of economic recession and inflation on hunger and food insecurity in Nigeria.

To assess the challenges faced by low and middle income earners in accessing affordable and nutritious food.

To evaluate the effectiveness of government policies in addressing economic recession, inflation and hunger in Nigeria. 

To proffer strategic interventions to improve food security outcomes in Nigeria.

1.4 Research Questions

The following research questions which are in line with the objectives of this study will be answered in this study:

What is the extent of the economic recession, inflation and hunger under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration?

What is the impact of economic recession and inflation on hunger and food insecurity in Nigeria?

What are the challenges faced by low and middle income earners in accessing affordable and nutritious food?

How effective are government policies in addressing economic recession, inflation and hunger in Nigeria?

What are the strategic interventions to improve food security outcomes in Nigeria?

1.5 Research Hypotheses

To determine the effectiveness of this study, the following research null hypotheses will be formulated to guide the study and it will be tested at 0.05% levels of significance.:

Ho: The extent of the economic recession, inflation and hunger under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration is low

Ha: The extent of the economic recession, inflation and hunger under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration is high.

1.6 Significance of the study

The importance of this study resides in its thorough examination of economic recession, inflation, and hunger in Nigeria under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's tenure. The study seeks to analyse the interaction between these factors and their influence on the population, namely individuals with low and moderate incomes, with the goal of aiding in the creation of efficient policies and interventions. 

The research provides a thorough assessment of the policies enacted by President Tinubu's administration in order to tackle economic slump, manage inflation, and tackle food insecurity. This assessment facilitates comprehension of the efficacy of these policies and identification of any deficiencies that require attention. The study will offer evidence-based suggestions to policymakers, drawing from the findings. These ideas seek to optimise the efficiency of economic and agricultural policies, boost food distribution networks, and fortify social safety nets in order to provide assistance to poor and middle income households.

Furthermore, this study contributes to the current pool of information by conducting a thorough examination of the economic downturn and inflation in Nigeria during President Tinubu's leadership. This study analyses the underlying reasons, development, and consequences of these economic difficulties, providing a thorough comprehension of the present economic situation. Future scholars will utilise it as a comprehensive assessment of the existing literature. Consequently, other students with an interest in studying this subject will have the opportunity to utilise this work as preexisting information that may be critically evaluated. 

1.7 Scope of the study

Broadly, this study focuses to critically evaluate economic recession, inflation, and hunger in Nigeria: evidence from President Tinubu's administration. Specifically, this study seeks to examine the extent of the economic recession, inflation and hunger under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration, analyze the impact of economic recession and inflation on hunger and food insecurity in Nigeria and assess the challenges faced by low and middle income earners in accessing affordable and nutritious food. Further, this study will focus on evaluating the effectiveness of government policies in addressing economic recession, inflation and hunger in Nigeria and it also seeks to proffer strategic interventions to improve food security outcomes in Nigeria.

1.8 Limitations of the study

As with any human endeavour, the researchers faced minor limitations during the investigation. The main limitation was the lack of extensive literature on the subject, as well as the economic downturn, inflation, and famine in Nigeria under President Tinubu's government. Consequently, a significant investment of time and effort was necessary to locate appropriate materials, publications, or information and gather data.

 Moreover, this study is constrained by its small sample size and narrow geographic scope, namely focusing just on Nigeria. Therefore, the conclusions of this study cannot be extended to other situations, thus requiring further investigation. 

Another significant obstacle to consider is the budgetary limitation. Due to the researcher's status as a student and lack of financial resources, obtaining meaningful information for the study proved to be challenging. Furthermore, there has been an increase in rates for all services in Nigeria, including transportation, communication, and printing services. This imposed a significant strain on the researcher.

Furthermore, the researcher faced a time constraint due to the need to conduct this study while still fulfilling the obligations of attending lectures and participating in other educational activities.

1.9 Definition of terms

Food security: Food security is when a person is able to obtain a sufficient amount of healthy food on a day-to-day basis.

Food insecurity: Food insecurity is when a person cannot find adequate amounts of healthy food on a daily basis. Food security happens when a person does get the recommended amount of healthy food on a daily basis.

Inflation: Inflation is the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time. Inflation is typically a broad measure, such as the overall increase in prices or the increase in the cost of living in a country.