AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH POLITICAL CONFLICT IN KENYA

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

Elections constitute the heartbeat of liberal democracy and serve as the principal means to ensure the orderly transfer of political leadership and political legitimization. In democratizing societies, the conceptual vehicle that connects the elements of social change described above is democratic practices which the political leadership must spread across the institutional landscape of governance. Many scholars have attributed the predominance of dictatorships across the African continent to the failure of elections or election malpractices (Elischer 2018). In some countries, the dead cast votes from their graves, ballot boxes develop legs and wings and disappear into thin air, names of children appear on electoral rolls, and opposition candidates are threatened, harassed, or even annihilated . Election rigging, violence, election annulment, and other malpractices are common practices jeopardizing Africa’s democratization process. Although the wind of democracy blew across the continent in the 1990s and prompted several authoritarian regimes to embrace multiparty politics, elections are everything else but free and fair because the incumbents play all the “games” necessary to win the elections and retain power – what has been referred to as electoral authoritarian regimes.

According to Tijjani (2015), election is a process in which the people pick their leaders, signal their policies and programme preferences, and, as a result, invest a government with the ability to rule. According to Osakwe (2019) define election as a process of selecting individuals to occupy particular public posts through choices made by the voter; those citizens who are entitled to vote under the rules and procedures of the electoral system. According to Jinadu (2019), election outcome is established by the formal process  when citizens choose a representative for public office or adopting or rejecting a political viewpoint, which is often done in any democratic setting where individuals may be elected to various positions for a certain period of time. Although the importance of elections under a democratic system of government cannot be emphasized, the process of electing individuals to public office is getting increasingly difficult in many nations throughout the world, particularly in developing countries like Kenya.

Whereas it is true that elections give electorates  chance to vote for individuals and parties that will reflect their various interests when its process is marred by wide range violence and conflict, this is capable of ruining the outcome.  According to Uhunmwbangho (2018), political conflict is a recurring phenomenon in Kenya ethnic patterned democracy's never-ending narrative of violence, which began with  multiparty systm and continues until the current fourth democratic government. According to Bratton & Kimenyi. (2018), political violence encompasses all types of coordinated threats aiming at frightening, hurting, or blackmailing a political stakeholder or opponent prior to, during, or after an election with the objective of determining, delaying, or influencing a political process.  Similarly Jinadu (2019) averred that political violence includes all types of riots, protests, party conflicts, political assassinations, looting, arson, thuggery, and abduction that occur before, during, and after elections. It os any random or organised act that seeks to determine, delay, or otherwise influence an electoral process through threat, verbal intimidation, hate speech, disinformation, physical assault, forced "protection", blackmail, property destruction, or assassination. 

Undoubtedly the history of opposition in Kenya since 1992 is one of division, infighting, and a consistent inability to cooperate to achieve common goals (Apollos, 2001. Noteworthy is the fact that during the introduction of multiparty, opposition parties were formed along ethnic lines. On the other aspect of democracy is that the losing parties have a say in government between elections (Przeworski 1991). Therefore, even if the opposition loses the election, they believe they have a chance at winning the next election and have some voice in the current government. However, if the losers of the election are not treated fairly and given some voice in government, then there may be greater political conflict.

1.2 Statement of the problem

The electoral process in Kenya has frequently been threatened by ethnic pluralism, unequitable redistribution of national wealth and the struggle for political power. In fact, holding the office of president provides many benefits for the individual and the groups close to the president. However, the losers of the election are left out of the decision making process which lures them into violence. Barkan (2018) suggests that a free and fair election guarantees an uncertain result. That is, no party will know the outcome of the election until after the results have been counted and if all parties trust the election process to be fair, then the opposition believes they will have a chance to win in the next election. However, if the opposition believes the election is not a fair process, then they may not accept the election outcomes and eventually uses all means to distort the true process.

             Bizarrely, Ajulu, (2022) mentioned that forms of political conflict  may vary dramatically. The first pattern of violence, which many observers perceived to be spontaneous, was the burning and looting of shops, houses and commercial outlets in the slums of Nairobi and Kisumu by youth groups. The second pattern of violence observed around the Rift Valley was the targeting of communities of small farmers and landholders perceived to be government supporters, with the primary intention of driving them out and keeping them away from the region. Substantial evidence compiled by the OHCHR mission referenced in  Anderson & Lochery (2022) suggests that the violence is partially organized by local politicians and/or traditional leaders who sought to settle long-held grievances over land issues, as well as other real and perceived discrimination.

Consequently, Apollos (2021) asserts that the situation is further worsened by the centralized political power in the executive that controls the distribution of resources.Such violence has social and economic consequences that undermine the development of the country. Several people have been left homeless, injured or dead. Economically the country suffers tremendously from shortages of food, and resources  as stated by Kagwanja (2019). The immediate and real consequence of the election in Kenya is felt most at personal and family level. There is loss of security in the conflict-prone areas as the civilians take the law into their own hands, targeting perceived enemies. As a result of insecurity, there is indiscriminate loss of human life.  Although various studies have been undertaken on election violence, This study shall make an indepth analysis of  factors associated with political conflict in Kenya

1.3 Objective of the study

The broad objective of this study focuses on factors associated with political conflict in Kenya

 Other specific objectives includes:

i.          To examine the extent to which  political conflict eschew in Kenya Democracy.

ii.        To investigate the patterns of   political conflict  witnessed in Kenya last Election

iii.      To ascertain the factors triggering political conflict in kenya

iv.      To ascertain the effect of political conflict o Kenya democracy

1.4 Research Questions

i.          What is the  the extent to which  political conflict eschew in Kenya Democracy.?

ii.        What are  the patterns of   political conflict  witnessed in Kenya last Election?

iii.      What are the factors triggering political violence in Kenya

iv.      What are  the effect of political conflict o Kenya democratic consolidation?

1.5 Research Hypotheses

Ho: There are no known factors triggering political conflict in Kenya

Hi: There are  known factors triggering political conflict in Kenya

1.5 Significance of the study

This will be done by identifying and analyzing the problem of historical conflicts which should be resolved in order to foster society’s aspiration of peaceful elections. The implication is that if election violence is due to static traditional ethnic divisions, then it will be very difficult to change society and these deep historical divisions. The significance of this study lies in the opportunity it offers the researcher to contribute to knowledge on Kenya’s election violence. It also x-rays the fundamental factors associated with election violence and ultimately recommends ways for obviating them. It will serve as an eye opener to researchers, government officials and general readers who truly intend to understand the impediment to democratic consolidation in Kenya. Secondly, this study represents a more current and comprehensive body of research on how historical ethnic divisions still contribute to election violence in Kenya. Unlike past studies which focused on historical land divisions and pluralism, this study will invariably fill the vacuum in literature on ethnic divided political institutions as influencing election violence in Kenya.

1.6       Scope of the study

Political conflicts during elections in Kenya have continued to generate confusion, panic and skepticism between the government and the opposition parties. In the light of the above scenario, this study attempts to find, analyze and verify the root causes of the ethnic conflicts in order to understand and propose solutions that could help the Kenyan government and society in their search for a better future through democratic consolidation. This study also attempts to discuss other crucial themes related to ethnic conflicts and their implications to the stability and development of Kenya. Th study is delimited to 2007-2022 election using  residents  of  Nairaobi, Kenya.

1.7       Limitation of the study

The researchers encountered slight constraints while carrying out the study. The significant constraint was the scanty literature on the subject owing that  political violence discourse is vast thus the researcher incurred more financial expenses and much time was required in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature, or information and in the process of data collection, which is why the researcher resorted to a limited choice of sample size covering only residents  of  Nairaobi, Kenya. Thus findings of this study cannot be used for generalization for  other  states within Nigeria. Additionally, the researcher will simultaneously engage in this study with other academic work will impede maximum devotion to the research. Howbeit, despite the constraint  encountered during the  research, all factors were downplayed in other to give the best and make the research successful.

1.8       Definition of Terms

Political Conflict: political conflict is  any random or organized act that seeks to determine, delay, or otherwise influence an electoral process through threat, verbal intimidation, hate speech, disinformation, physical assault, forced “protection”, blackmail, destruction of property, or assassination.