STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF INCIDENCE OF HIV/AIDS PANDEMIC IN NIGERIA FROM

1996 – 2005

ABSTRACT

          The cam of this study was to examine the incidence of HIV/AIDS in Nigeria.   This study started with attempt to state the problem that motivated the study.

          The study was done to access critically the impact of HIV/AIDS in Nigeria and the effort toward reducing it.  The method hypothesis was tested with use of kruskal wallis multiple comparism test, sign test and test for goodness of fit.  In this test, the null hypothesis of the first two test was rejected while the later was accepted rise in the reported cases of HIV/AIDS in Nigeria.

          We also conclude that there are differences in the age distribution of people living with HIV/AIDS in Nigeria and that the rate of occurrence is not the same in male and female.  Also is 39 age class are mostly affected.

          The following recommendation were made, that specific measures should be adopted such as provision of safe blood transfusion etc, employment opportunities should be provided for youths to discourage them from prostitution and drug abuse, men and women should change their sexual behaviours and government should take urgent step to avoid decrease in population, frustration etc.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title page

Approval page

Dedication

Acknowledgement

Abstract

Table of contents

CHAPTER ONE

1.1          Introduction

1.1.1    What is aids

1.2          Background of the study

1.2.1    The origin of aids

1.2.2    Causes of aids

1.2.3    Symptoms of aids

1.2.4    Mode of spread of aids

1.2.5    How t o avoid aids

1.2.6    Cure for aids

1.3          Motivation

1.4          Aims and objective of the study

1.5          Significance of the study

1.6          Hypothesis

1.7          The scope of study

1.8          Definitions of terms

CHAPTER TWO

2.0          Literature Review

CHAPTER THREE

3.0          Research methodology

3.1     The sign test

3.2          Exponential model

3.3          Procedure to follow to get the residual variance estimate (s2)

3.4          Test of hypothesis

3.5          Test of goodness of fit

3.6          Source of data

3.7          Method of data collection

3.8          Limitation of data

3.9          Data presentation

CHAPTER FOUR

4.1          Analysis Of Data

4.1.0  Preliminary Analysis

4.1.1    Graphical Display Of The Data

4.1.2    Representation Of Data (Classified By Age As A Bar Chart)

4.2     Comparism   Using Kruskai Wallis Test

4.3     To Find the Age That Has the Higher Reported Cases Using Test Of Proportion

4.4          Using sign test

4.5          Fitting the exponential model

4.6          Estimate of likely number of people to live with hiv/aids

4.7          Test for significance of the regression coefficient b1

4.8          Test for goodness of fit

CHAPTER FIVE

5.1          Summary of findings and conclusion

5.2          Conclusion

CHAPTER ONE

1.1     INTRODUCTION

Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is the most unwelcome visitor of the 20th Century.  It has been disturbing and posing a great threat to human race and world population.  Since the discovery of AIDS in 1981 in America, there has been tremendous rise in the cases the number of deaths.  The prediction of doom by some local and international organization like the United Nations is turning into reality.  The future is so uncertain as to what will become of developing countries like Nigeria where the scourge is gradually taking its tell on the population.

1.1.1  WHAT IS AIDS

AIDS is a very serious disease that affects the body’s ability of defend itself against certain other diseases.  It caused by virus HIV (Human Immune Deficiency Virus).  It is retrovirus which affects and takes over certain cells of the immune system.  The HIV virus penetrates immunity enhancing cells.  It then makes new copies of itself and from there, goes on infecting other immunity cell.  This causes the infected cell to function improperly and prematurely.  This leads to weakening of the immune system thereby permitting all kinds of infection.

1.2               BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

1.2.1  THE ORIGIN OF AIDS

No one knows exactly where the AIDS virus came from but many scientist think it originated in Africa.  One theory is that AIDS virus evolved from a similar, through harmless virus found in African Green Monkey.  According to this theory, soemtime in the past, one of the monkey viruses underwent a change mutatim that enabled it to survive in the human body.  This mutation was passed on to the virus’s “offspring” and eventually same of the mutated viruses found their way into the human body, perhaps as a result of a person being bitten by a eating a monkey (monkey brains are popularly found in Africa).  Once inside the human body, the virus may have mutated further until it become the virus known today as the AIDS virus.  Regardless of exactly where it started, AIDS is now a world wide problem.

AIDS was first discovered in America in the year 1981 by Dr. Montegor of the California University.  But today, AIDS has been reported in over 100 countries of the world.

1.2.2  CAUSES OF AIDS

Most scientists believe that AIDS is caused by a type of germ known as a virus.  The virus has been given a number of different scientific names including: HTL V – III, LAV, ARV and HIV.  The most commonly known among these is HIV.

HIV stands for

H       -         Human

I         -         Immunodeficiency

V       -         Virus

1.2.3  SYMPTOMS OF AIDS

It depends on which disease the person develops as the immune system break down.

Most common symptoms are:

i.                Prolonged diarrhea

ii.              Swollen Lymph glands in the neck, armpits or elsewhere

iii.            Unexplained weight loss

iv.            Persistent dry cough

v.              Severe skin rashes which comes and goes

vi.            Night sweat

vii.          Extreme tiredness

viii.        White patches inside the mouth

ix.            Shortness of breath

x.              Proneness to different kinds of diseases like tuberculosis, cancer, pneumonia, chest infection, Meningitis.

1.2.4  MODE OF SPREAD OF AIDS

i.                Sexual Intercourse (homo, heterc)

ii.              Prenatal transmission from mother to new born

iii.            Blood transfusion

iv.            Use of unsterilized equipment and contaminated needle

v.              Contact with blood of infected person

1.2.5  HOW TO AVOID AIDS

i.

---

---